Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Lithium Power International, Tata Steel Ltd, Nanoco Group PLC and more

We have raised our near-term lithium price expectations to reflect the current supply/demand cycle and upgraded our long-run (post 2031) price forecasts (from US$17,000/t to US$22,500/t LCE) to reflect lithium’s high demand growth and highly concentrated supply fundamentals. On the back of this, our valuation of Lithium Power International (LPI) has increased from A$1.24/share to A$1.42/share assuming the full project equity dilution. We have also updated our model to reflect 100% consolidation of the Maricunga project as well as LPI’s (now somewhat more dilutive) lower share price.

Tata Steel has reported significantly weaker than expected Q3/22-23 results. This was driven by a material loss in the European business. Meanwhile, the Indian operations remained reasonable. The consolidated financial risk profile deteriorated significantly, albeit Net Debt/EBITDA remained within the company’s long-term target. Liquidity is adequate.

The next few quarters are likely to be weaker for Tata Steel in Europe, as markets remain subdued. Steel prices are projected to weaken in Q4/22-23, with the drop likely to be steeper than the decline in coking coal and iron ore prices.

Nanoco Group has signed the final agreements to settle the litigation with Samsung on a no-fault basis for the alleged infringement of the group’s intellectual property (IP), with Samsung paying Nanoco $150m (£125m) in cash. Nanoco’s H123 performance relating to the organic activities was slightly ahead of management’s expectations. We have revised our estimates to reflect both the settlement, which includes £3.0m in licence revenues recognisable in H223 and takes the group from negative to positive EBITDA for FY23, and the H123 trading update.