In today’s briefing:
- JSR (4185 JP) – Launch of The Official Tender Offer (And the Double Arb)
- JSR Corporation (4185 JP): JIC Tender Starts and Should Succeed Despite Shin-Etsu’s Re-Rating
- Orecorp Should Now Back Perseus’ Offer
- Gold and Bitcoin Rallye & CTA Positioning Update
- Alternus Clean Energy, Inc. – Going Vertical with Alternus
- Wheaton Precious Metals – Celebrating the Ides of March
- Chariot Limited (AIM: CHAR): Initiating a strategic review of the Transitional Power business to focus on gas
- Evolution Petroleum Corp. – Organic Development Portfolio Creates Capital Allocation Choices
- Pulsar Helium Inc. (TSX-V: PLSR): Helium Concentration of 13.8%
- ADX Energy (ASX: ADX): Very high impact exploration well encounters gas and condensate in Austria
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JSR (4185 JP) – Launch of The Official Tender Offer (And the Double Arb)
- The Tender Offer is finally here. JIC announced the official launch after the close today.
- JIC appears to be taking on the SUNY RF risk as-is. The Tender Offer details vs the original expectations in the late June 2023 document are unchanged.
- Once started, unless a US court approves an injunction causing regulatory delay, this is done. But there are path events. And of course there is a double arb here.
JSR Corporation (4185 JP): JIC Tender Starts and Should Succeed Despite Shin-Etsu’s Re-Rating
- JSR Corp (4185 JP) notes that the pre-condition for JIC’s tender has been satisfied. The offer price remains unchanged at JPY4,350 per share.
- The offer remains attractive despite the material re-rating of peers. The tender should succeed when combined with shareholder fatigue and a lack of vocal opposition.
- The tender requires a 66.7% minority acceptance rate. The gross and annualised spread for a 23 April payment is 0.6% and 7.1%, respectively.
Orecorp Should Now Back Perseus’ Offer
- Back in August, Silvercorp (SVM CN) bid A$0.15/share and 0.967 scrip for Orecorp (ORR AU); and secured board support after bumping the cash portion to A$0.19/share via an Off-market Offer.
- Perseus Mining (PRU AU) countered on the 22 January with a A$0.55/share Offer, which was rejected by Orecorp, ostensibly over concerns Perseus had not secured Tanzanian Fair Competition Commission approval.
- That regulatory approval has now been satisfied. The Offers for both Perseus and Silvercorp are conditional on 50.1% acceptance hurdles. I think Perseus’ all-cash Offer is superior.
Gold and Bitcoin Rallye & CTA Positioning Update
- Gold and Bitcoin prices both remain massively supported by easing financial conditions and a bunch of liquidity in the market.
- While the Fed Funds Rate remains high at 5,5% – liquidity conditions in the market is what really matters for both safe haven assets.
- Meanwhile, J.P. Morgan announced that gold is their number one pick in the commodities market. According to them, the price has room to rise towards $2.500.
Alternus Clean Energy, Inc. – Going Vertical with Alternus
- Alternus Clean Energy, Inc. (Alternus) is a transatlantic clean energy independent power producer (IPP) that develops, installs, owns, and operates small utility-scale and community solar parks (5 MW to 200 MW) in the US and Europe.
- The company aims to reach 1.5 GW of operational projects through organic development and strategic acquisition within the next three years.
- Alternus differentiates itself by focusing on small utility-scale and community solar projects with a fully vertically integrated execution strategy ranging from project development through to long- term asset management.
Wheaton Precious Metals – Celebrating the Ides of March
Wheaton’s (WPM’s) Q4/FY23 results were released after the market close on 14 March, within the context of known metals sales and almost known production. Even so, net earnings were US$2.9m (or 1.8%) better than our prior forecast for the quarter, largely as a result of achieved metals prices that were higher than average market prices. Otherwise, the quarter was characterised by accelerated levels of investment into underlying mineral streams and the announcement of a new, progressive dividend policy.
Chariot Limited (AIM: CHAR): Initiating a strategic review of the Transitional Power business to focus on gas
- • Chariot is initiating a strategic review of its Transitional Power business.
- • The business includes multiple wind and solar projects in Southern Africa (with a solar project already operational in Burkina Faso).
- It also includes a power trading licence in South Africa.
Evolution Petroleum Corp. – Organic Development Portfolio Creates Capital Allocation Choices
- Encouraging initial results from both the Chaveroo Oilfield Strategic Partnership and the recently closed SCOOP/STACK acquisition point to the merits of adding an organic growth element to Evolution’s asset base.
- The addition increases management’s capital allocation choices to balance reinvesting in the underlying asset base, reducing leverage, and returning cash to shareholders.
- The first three horizontal wells in the Chaveroo field have met or exceeded pre-drill expectations.
Pulsar Helium Inc. (TSX-V: PLSR): Helium Concentration of 13.8%
- The analysis of eleven samples from the Jetstream #1 well at Topaz by two different laboratories revealed helium content of up to 13.8%, specifically from a sample obtained at 1,801ft in-hole depth.
- Because of the clear presence of small amounts of atmospheric air contamination in the samples, a third party expert from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution concluded that 13.8% helium should be considered as representing a minimum concentration estimate .
- The analysis demonstrates an increase from the previous estimates from measurements on site of up to 12.4% helium concentration.
ADX Energy (ASX: ADX): Very high impact exploration well encounters gas and condensate in Austria
- The Welchau well (ADX WI: 75%) encountered 115 m of liquids-rich gas shows in the primary target formation (Steinalm Formation) between 1452 m and 1567 m.
- The deepest gas shows were encountered at a depth of 1645 m.
- The well has reached TD at 1733 m.