In today’s briefing:
- Value from US Spin-Off
- Goodbye El Nino – Hello again La Nina // The case for Bitcoin
- Empire Energy Group Ltd – Getting Close to the FID Pointy End
- Chariot Limited (AIM: CHAR):Onshore drilling to start in 1Q24
- TM: High-Grade Results & Positive Underground Update
Value from US Spin-Off
- Having lagged competitors on share price basis since Holcim/Lafarge merger, on 29 January, Holcim (HOLN SW) announced plans to spin-off and list its North American business in the US.
- Infrastructure and housing are reponsible for U.S. comparables to trade on 14.7x median EV/NTM Fwd EBITDA, in sharp contrast to 5.4x median EV/NTM Fwd EBITDA of European comparables.
- Even if valuing the RoW business at the lower median European multiples, the spin-off should be value accretive. My fair value estimate of CHF 84.47/share represents 25.7% upside.
Goodbye El Nino – Hello again La Nina // The case for Bitcoin
- “El Nino has peaked and is declining, indicating a return to neutral in the southern hemisphere autumn 2024 (March-June),” the Australian Bureau of Meteorology wrote last week.
- Even more the institute forecasts that El Nino may completely dissipate by June.
- For our clients, that won’t come as a surprise as we highlighted this scenario over a couple of weeks.
Empire Energy Group Ltd – Getting Close to the FID Pointy End
- Empire Energy Group Limited (ASX:EEG) is an oil and gas producer/developer with onshore Northern Territory (NT) and US oil/gas production assets.
- EEG has the largest tenement position in the highly prospective Greater McArthur Basin, which includes the Beetaloo Sub-basin.
- The investment case continues to build with a FID point on the Carpentaria Pilot Project tantalisingly close.
Chariot Limited (AIM: CHAR):Onshore drilling to start in 1Q24
- Drilling at Loukos in Morocco is expected to start around the end of 1Q24 with Chariot expecting the imminent approval of environment permit for up to 20 drilling locations.
- The first prospect to be drilled will be Gaufrette (in line with previous indications).
- Energean and Chariot are negotiation a contract for a drilling rig for the 2024 campaign.
TM: High-Grade Results & Positive Underground Update
- Trigon announced stellar drill results from its ongoing at-surface confirmatory drill campaign.
- Last week, Trigon Metals Inc. (TM:TSXV) announced strong confirmatory drill results at its Kombat Mine in Namibia.
- Today’s drill results have successfully confirmed mineralized zones identified from the historical drill results.
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