In today’s briefing:
- Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468.HK) Update – Newjf’s Offer Should Be Prioritized
- Selected European HoldCos and DLC: 2024 Report
- Copper Tracker 6th Jan 2025: What Lies In Store For The Year
- Iron Ore Tracker (6-Jan-2025): What Does the New Year Hold in Store For Iron Ore
Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468.HK) Update – Newjf’s Offer Should Be Prioritized
- All Pre-Conditions of Newjf’s Offer have been satisfied. Based on Offer Document, the latest date for posting of the Response Document is Jan.7, 2025. First Closing Date is Jan.21, 2025.
- Newjf will make every effort to complete the acquisition and regain the control of international business so as to protect shareholders’ interests.So, the logic behind the deal is very solid.
- Mengniu’s attitude could be positive. A higher management offer seems more out of reach because the management lacks sincerity. We advise investors not to walk away from Newjf’s Offer easily.
Selected European HoldCos and DLC: 2024 Report
- Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly tightened during 2024. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 11.8% (vs. 50.8% as of Y/E 2023); GBL, 40.9% (vs. 37.4%); Heineken Holding, 15.8% (vs. 16.7%);
- Industrivärden C, 5.5% (vs. 5.5%); Investor B, 4.5% (vs. 12.8%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 32.2% (vs. 36.6%). Rio DLC spread tightened to 23% (vs. 24.2%).
- What seems interesting (unchanged views): Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).
Copper Tracker 6th Jan 2025: What Lies In Store For The Year
- We expect copper demand to have ended FY24 at around 27.1 million tons (up 4% year over year). FY25 could be an interesting year in which copper demand outstrips supply.
- We expect China to have about 15.3 million tons of demand (flattish year over year) in FY24. The stimulus will be crucial for growth in overall copper FY25 demand.
- We continue to expand our coverage of pure copper play names, with our favorites being Southern Copper (SCCO US) and Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN)
Iron Ore Tracker (6-Jan-2025): What Does the New Year Hold in Store For Iron Ore
- We expect iron ore to remain rangebound between 90 and 110 USD/ton in FY25, which is in line with the band it has maintained over the past six months.
- Iron ore players like Vale (VALE US) and Fortescue Metals (FMG AU) can maintain high single-digit dividend yields at USD 100/ton. We see short-term opportunities in these names.
- For small-cap specialists, check out our research on Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Positive Developments At Iron Ridge And Other Catalysts. The company (trailing 5x PE) is poised to triple its production.
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