Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Gold Road Resources, CRH , Posco Future M, Crude Oil, Nanshan Aluminium International Holdings, Natural Gas, SGX Rubber Future TSR20 and more

• Gold Road Resources (GOR AU) has rejected a non-binding proposal from Gold Fields (GFI US). The offer is A$2.27 plus value per share of Gold Road’s shareholding in De Grey.
• The Board has rejected the offer mainly due to opportunistic timing and no value attributed to the potential underground expansion of the Gruyere mine (Gold Road/Gold Fields are JV partners).
• The proposal is a logical consolidation to eliminate dis-synergies. The offer is reasonable compared to peer multiples, precedent transactions and historical trading ranges. 

• The S&P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
• In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the June 2025 index rebal event.
• We expect two regular changes in June 2025. There are also multiple live spin-off and M&A events which are likely to trigger intra-review index changes.

• Short selling balance in the Korean stock market was 62.4 trillion won as of 21 March 2025, up significantly from 47.2 trillion won three months ago.
• Among the stocks in KOSPI with high short selling balance and high lending balance ratios include Posco Future M, Yuhan Corp, LG Energy Solution, and Hanwha Aerospace. 
• Among the stocks in KOSDAQ with high short selling balance and high lending balance ratios include Ecopro BM, Ecopro Co, HLB, and Eo Technics. 

• Gold Road Resources (GOR AU) has rejected an unsolicited offer from Gold Fields Ltd (GFI SJ), 
• In a bid to secure control over the Gruyere JV mine in WA, Gold Roads offered A$2.27/share, “plus … Gold Road’s interest in .. De Grey Mining (DEG AU).“
• To spice things up Gold Road countered with a proposal to acquire Gold Fields’ interest in Gruyere, which was also rejected by Gold Fields.

• OPEC’s output decision is seen as the most influential factor for the oil market, with prices tumbling and Brent crude trading just above $70
• OPEC shows tolerance to potential economic fallout from tariffs and plans to increase crude oil output starting in April 2025
• Uncertainty remains in the market as geopolitical tensions escalate in the Middle East and President Trump proposes a new Iranian nuclear deal with a two-month deadline, putting pressure on Iran and other countries subject to sanctions

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• Nanshan Aluminium International Holdings (NAI HK) , raised around US$302m in its Hong Kong IPO.
• It is a leading high-quality alumina manufacturer in Southeast Asia.
• We have looked at the company’s past performance and valuations in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.

• For the week ending 21/Mar, U.S. natural gas prices fell by 3% due to milder weather forecasts and larger-than-expected build in the U.S. natural gas inventories.
• Henry Hub dropped by 6.4% on 20/Mar (Thu) after the EIA reported a 9 Bcf build in U.S. inventories. Prices ended the week below the 9-day and 21-day moving averages.
• Henry Hub OI PCR increased to 1.05 on 21/Mar from 1.03 on 14/Mar. Call OI rose by 3.6% WoW, while put OI grew by 5%.

• WTI futures rose 1.6% for the week ending 21/Mar, driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East and declining U.S. fuel inventories.
• The U.S. rig count rose by one to 593. The oil rig count dropped by one to 486 and gas rigs rose by two to 102.
• WTI OI PCR fell to 0.90 on 21/Mar from 0.93 on 14/Mar. Call OI decreased by 12.2% WoW, while put OI dropped by 14.6%.

• OPEC maintains its 2025 oil demand growth forecast at 1.45m bpd, while the IEA lowered its estimate due to weaker-than-expected economic activity.
• The EIA reduced its 2025 global liquid fuels production forecast to 1.4m bpd, down from 1.7m bpd, while maintaining its 2026 forecast at 1.6m bpd.
• Rising non-OPEC+ production, led by the U.S., Canada, and Brazil, may result in an oversupplied market by late 2025.

• Prices crosses the magical level of INR 200/kg after five months  
• Supply short but farmers who stock and didn’t rainguard benefit  
•  Rubber Board starts geo-mapping of rubber plantations