In today’s briefing:
- Shorting Entry Point on Ecopro BM with KODEX Battery ETF Rebalancing on March 10
- Rio Tinto PLC (RIO LN) – 8.2% Profit Target at 5415/5650 Achieved in 3 Weeks
- The Importance of Asymmetry
- Kingston Resources Limited – Building a Production Base
- Pacgold Ltd – Seeking to Unlock an Entire Gold Corridor, at Scale
- Rent.com.au Ltd – RentPay Making Good Progress with ARPU and Customers
- Southern Cross Gold Ltd – Leading the Renaissance in the Victorian Goldfields
- Contract Backlog Supports 2023 Revenue Outlook
Shorting Entry Point on Ecopro BM with KODEX Battery ETF Rebalancing on March 10
- Ecopro BM’s weight has expanded to 22%. Since the probability of receiving a 15% cap is virtually 100%, it will inevitably undergo a weight change of up to nearly 7%p.
- If the ongoing rally subsides before March 10th and returns to the January DTV level, the price impact could surge up to 0.3-0.4x daily for three trading days.
- This seems to be a sufficient level for a shorting entry point. It may be worth considering an outright short position on Ecopro BM or Long Short with SK Innovation.
Rio Tinto PLC (RIO LN) – 8.2% Profit Target at 5415/5650 Achieved in 3 Weeks
- At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
- On 3 February 2023 we identified a material topside failure in RIO LN and pending high probability multi-week to multi-month decline into the 5415/5650 range.
- RIO LN declined from 6064 on 3 February to a low of 5568 on 27 February, a decline of 8.2%. Target achieved.
The Importance of Asymmetry
- In theory, the fundamental building blocks of the universe, matter and anti-matter, should exist at a 1:1 ratio, a positron for every electron, a yin to each yang.
- However, owed to some miraculous flaw in the simulation’s code, a perturbation in the motion of the universe’s marionette, this is not the case.
- Rather than the big-bang resulting in the almost immediate annihilation of matter and anti-matter into photons, matter prevailed, surviving in excess to its counterpart.
Kingston Resources Limited – Building a Production Base
- Kingston Resources Limited (ASX:KSN) is an ASX-listed gold and copper mining company with two significant projects at Mineral Hill (Cobar, NSW), where the tailings production project is delivering record quarterly results, and the 3.8Moz Misima Gold Project in PNG, with a recently completed DFS.
- The tailings project at Mineral Hill is a precursor to the company’s aim to return to full-scale mining through building the reserves and resources base during 2023.
- The company expects to commence open-pit operations at the Pearse deposits in early 2024, progressing to underground works and first copper in late 2024 from the Southern Ore Zone.
Pacgold Ltd – Seeking to Unlock an Entire Gold Corridor, at Scale
- Pacgold Limited (ASX:PGO) is an ASX-listed minerals exploration company focused on the Alice River gold project at the northern end of the North-east Queensland Mineral Province.
- Pacgold has a 100% interest in Alice River, covering an historical high-grade goldfield and open-pit mine with eight mining leases and five exploration permits over an area spanning 377km2.
- The company commences drilling in March/April with a pipeline of high-grade targets along a previously overlooked 30km trend.
Rent.com.au Ltd – RentPay Making Good Progress with ARPU and Customers
- Rent.com.au Limited (ASX:RNT) is a purpose-led company seeking to empower home renters through their technology platform and a growing number of aligned transactional services.
- The company has reported H1 FY23 revenue of $1.43m, down 12.6% on the previous corresponding period (pcp) and below our forecast for $1.95m for the half.
- Underlying EBITDA was a loss of $1.0m, compared with $0.82m in H1 FY22. The EPS loss for the period was flat year on year.
Southern Cross Gold Ltd – Leading the Renaissance in the Victorian Goldfields
- Southern Cross Gold Ltd (ASX:SXG) is an ASX-listed gold and critical metals company with three projects in the Victorian goldfields and one in Mt Isa, Queensland.
- The company’s flagship project Sunday Creek is an epizonal gold-antimony deposit with antimony a critical metal used across the semi-conductor, defence and energy sector, in particular in lithium ion battery production.
- SXG listed on the ASX in May 2022 after raising $9.093mn at $0.20/share in an initial public offering to give a market capitalisation at listing of $31.25mn.
Contract Backlog Supports 2023 Revenue Outlook
- We expect the steep revenue ramp, which commenced in 2Q22, to continue into 2023 as Flotek continues to expand service to a growing number of ProFrac’s pressure pumping fleets to meet the terms of the 10-year supply agreement signed in February 2022.
- Flotek will supply the greater of 70% of ProFrac’s stimulation chemistry requirements or 30 frac fleets. For its part, ProFrac expects to have up to 49 active fleets by mid-year 2023.
- We have built a 2023 reported revenue estimate of ~$224 million based on supplying an average of 26 ProFrac crews.
💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
Sign Up for Free
The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network
- ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
- ✓ Personalised Alerts
- ✓ Custom Watchlists
- ✓ Company Data and News
- ✓ Events & Webinars
