Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Crude Oil, Greatview Aseptic Packaging, SGX Rubber Future TSR20, Korea Zinc, Natural Gas and more

• Wall Street sell-side analysts discuss feedback and questions policies regarding oil price divergence in 2025
• Consensus view among analysts suggests bearish sentiment in equity energy investors compared to forecasts
• Market projections indicate potential tighter global oil balances and reduced likelihood of disorderly price collapse following OPEC meeting in early December 2024.

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• On 20 December, Shandong Xinjufeng Technology Packaging (301296 CH) satisfied the precondition for its Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK) offer. The offer document will be despatched by 27 December.
• Analysing the EGM vote on 18 October suggests that the 50% minimum acceptance condition will be met if no competing management offer is made. 
• Management will oppose the offer, but the last EGM protest votes suggest that many minorities will ignore management. At the last close, the gross/annualised spread was 2.3%/25.3%.

• Operators high on quantum jump in exports to Malaysia
• VRA Secretary-General says Vietnam keen on fully meeting EUDR
• Major challenge variety of sources including imports and mixing

• Chairman Choi has proposed a cumulative voting system which is one of the agenda items to be discussed and voted upon at the EGM on 23 January. 
• There is likely to be continued uncertainty about proxy voting, including whether or not Korea Zinc could use cumulative voting system for Chairman Choi to retain control of the company. 
• On 23 December, Korea Zinc (010130 KS) announced that it will propose a 10 to 1 stock split on the next EGM scheduled for 23 January 2025.

• On Friday, the 20th December, GAPack (468 HK) announced that Shandong Xinjufeng Technology (301296 CH) (XJF) had satisfied all pre-conditions.
• The Offer Document has now been dispatched, and the Offer is now open for tendering. The First Close is the 21st January.
• This Doc is largely a nothing burger. The Response Document, which will include the IFA, is required to be dispatched on or before the 7 January 2025. 

• Turbulent fundamentals, volatile weather, and uncertain geopolitics pushed US LNG implied volatility to a 12-month high of 99.47 on 20/Dec. US nat-gas prices have surged 38.2% since November 2024.
• Midstream/MLP ETFs, with low energy price correlation, stood out in 2024 as the only energy ETFs to attract inflows, while producer and refiner-focused ETFs saw outflows.
• The Alerian MLP ETF, has an AUM of USD 9.4 billion. Over the past year, it has attracted net inflows of USD 1.3 billion and offers a yield of 7.8%.

• While the sentiment around the “long US equities trade” seems to be extended and due for a correction, the bearish positioning in commodities and energy is reasonable and we also expect this trend to continue for a little while.
• The latest BofA fund manager survey showed how extreme the position is currently and how little cash professional investors currently have to allocate.
• FMS cash level fell from 4.3% to 3.9% of AUM, matching the lowest level since Jun ’21.

• The US oil and gas rig count remained unchanged for the second straight week at 589 for the week ending on 20/Dec.
• For the week ending 13/Dec, US oil production moderately fell to 13.6m bpd from its record high of 13.63m bpd the week prior.
• The number of active US oil rigs grew to 483, while the US gas rig count fell by one to 102.