Daily Brief Energy/Materials: CPMC Holdings, Greatview Aseptic Packaging, Orora Ltd, Ball , Natural Gas, MMG, Red 5 Ltd, Energy Absolute, Endurance Gold and more

• The CPMC Holdings (906 HK) Board recommends that shareholders accept Changping Industrial’s HK$6.87 offer, which the IFA opines is fair and reasonable.
• The Board’s carefully crafted and suitably caveated recommendation acknowledges that shares continue to trade through terms and ORG Technology Co., Ltd. A (002701 CH)’s HK$7.21 offer is higher but preconditional. 
• Based on ORG’s shareholding/irrevocable and volume traded above terms, Changping Industrial’s offer has little chance of success. It remains a question of when, not if, Changping Industrial will bump.

• The connection between Newjf and Greatview is deep. Newjf expressed an interest in acquiring Greatview early on, but the two parties didn’t reach an agreement. Greatview is not entirely “innocent”.
• Newjf’s decision to forcibly acquire Greatview at this moment should be made after careful consideration. Mengniu may not necessarily oppose this merger. Mengniu is likely to take a neutral stance. 
• Newjf’s Offer is attractive. In the absence of a more realistic action by Greatview to make a higher Offer, we advise investors not to walk away from Newjf’s Offer easily.

• Sustainable packaging play Orora Ltd (ORA AU) has “received and has rejected an opportunistic, conditional and non-binding indicative proposal from Lone Star Fund“. 
• The A$2.55/share Offer (less any dividends declared or payable), by way of a Scheme, was a  33.9% premium to last close. Orora was down 25% YTD, prior to the proposal.
• Orora’s FY24 results will be released tomorrow. Expect more commentary on the rejection of Lone Star’s approach in the Q&A. 

• In response to media speculation, Orora Ltd (ORA AU) disclosed that it had rejected Lone Star’s indicative non-binding proposal at A$2.55 per share, a 33.5% premium to the undisturbed price.
• The offer is opportunistically timed to take advantage of the share price collapse precipitating from the profit warning on 2 April. 
• The Lone Star offer is unattractive and could also draw other suitors. If Lone Star walks, the downside is low, as Orora’s valuation is undemanding compared to peer multiples.

• Ball Corporation reported its second quarter 2024 earnings, depicting a strategic navigation through a mixed market landscape, facing both headwinds and tailwinds across its various regional operations.
• The company’s global beverage can shipments and aerosol shipments experienced growth rates of 2.8% and 5.6% respectively, indicating strong demand for sustainable aluminum packaging solutions—an area in which Ball continues to cement its leadership.
• This growth, however, came amidst varying regional dynamics, from exceeding expectations in North America and EMEA to confronting challenges in South America, particularly due to economic volatility in Argentina.

• Take aways: Norwegian maintenance season and no flows from Russia is a spicy mix. Temperature is the main factor for worries about stock levels 2022 mayhem may be closer than you think. Refiners’ capacity utilization weak causing fear of crude gluts
• Fears in natural gas markets have returned as Ukrainian troops are giving Putin his own “Operation Citadel” moment.
• While many European countries have sought alternatives to Russian gas, nations like Austria and Slovakia still depend on it.

• In H1 2024 Profits and cash flow grew year over year
• Overall, operations tracking in line with previous guidance with some cost savings
• The key is the copper price which is closer to bottoming

• Red Five sold 412 million shares acquired through the process of merging with Silver Lake, making a tidy profit of 30 million
• The move gives Red Five nearly $500 million in cash and bullion with no debt, providing significant flexibility for the company
• Len’s discussion in the Diggers presentation indicated that this was a medium-term strategy with potential action by June 2025 for evaluating and dealing with the shares

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• The EA 248A bond meeting on 9-August produced a consent from bondholders to extend the maturity as per the company’s request.
• EA’s CFO announced that the company has secured 3-year credit facilities from 9 financial institutions and Asset Plus Securities Fund Management.
• Barring any further negative news , we believe the maturity extension and the long-term bank credit facilities could lead TRIS to at least reverse EA’s credit rating outlook.

• • EDG announced it has completed its first five diamond drill holes totalling 1,854m, as part of its 10,000m 2024 diamond drill program.
• • Assays are expected to start rolling in late August or early September.
• • Additional work is ongoing throughout the property to set up drill targets at the undrilled Olympic area and new targets at Upper Eagle.