Daily Brief Energy/Materials: CPMC Holdings, Chevron Corp, Iron Ore, Alkane Resources, Copper and more

• On 15 July, the precondition for Changping Industrial’s HK$6.87 offer for CPMC Holdings (906 HK) was satisfied, but the despatch of the offer document was delayed until or before 30 July.
• Since ORG Technology Co., Ltd. A (002701 CH) announced its HK$7.21 offer on 7 June, the shares have traded above Changping Industrial’s offer on all but bar one trading day
• Changping Industrial has three options: launch at unchanged terms (low probability), match ORG’s offer (medium probability) or bump marginally higher than ORG’s offer (high probability).

• Since all the Pre-Conditions have been fulfilled, Baosteel has taken a solid step towards the successful acquisition of CPMC. Comparatively, ORG could encounter resistance and uncertainties in the upcoming process.
• The acquisition of CPMC by ORG cannot be completed by ORG and Zhang Wei alone.Without the “nod” of COFCO/SASAC, what ORG’s going to do is equivalent to a “hostile takeover”. 
• ORG’s acquisition of control of CPMC could go against the national strategy of “building strong alliances between SOEs”. In fact, what ORG wants is for Baosteel to raise its Offer.

• Chevron’s Q2 revenue is set to dip 0.6% YoY, with EPS projected to drop 4.5% YoY on the back of lower refinery margins and natural gas prices.
• Higher Brent crude prices and strong production may help Chevron partially offset Q2’s challenges.
• Unplanned downtime at two Australian LNG plants during Q2 raises concerns about a drop in production.

• The lack of specific stimulus from China’s 3rd plenary meeting and minor rate cuts led to a 2.5% decline in iron ore prices, highlighting market disappointment.
• Despite a 13.7% MoM increase in iron ore imports, market concerns arise from stockpile accumulation rather than domestic consumption, suggesting potential future import slowdown.
• SGX Iron Ore options showed a bearish trend with a weekly volume put/call ratio of 2.1 and notable put option increases for September and October expiries, indicating market pessimism.

Since our last update note on 20 May, Alkane has announced 1) the results of its scoping study on the Boda-Kaiser project, 2) FY24 production of 57,217oz Au at an all-in sustaining cost (AISC) guidance of A$2,150–2,350/oz, 3) an updated five-year mining plan at Tomingley and 4) regional exploration results from the Northern Molong Porphyry Project (NMPP). This note updates our valuation of the company for each of these developments, of which the most important are the results of the Boda-Kaiser scoping study.

• Southern Copper (SCCO US) posted a 6% EBITDA beat and a 17% EPS beat buoyed by higher pricing of copper and by-products
• Sales/EBITDA/Profit increased by 35.5%/61%/72% YoY. It also guided a positive outlook for copper, highlighting a tightening of the physical market boding well for future quarters. 
• The board paid a 1.20 USD/share quarterly dividend in 50:50 scrip/cash. It will probably continue this practice, considering the elevated capex/ debt repayment of 500 mn USD in April 2025.