Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Aag Energy Holdings, Liontown Resources, Cosmochemical, Kunlun Energy, Pokarna Ltd, West China Cement, Growatt Technology, Ultrapar Participacoes Sa, Vedanta Resources and more

• Back on the 17 February, AAG Energy Holdings (2686 HK) announced an underwhelming Offer of HK$1.85/share (declared final) by way of a Scheme from major shareholder Xinjiang Xintai (603393 CH).
• Yesterday, Xinjiang Xintai shareholders approved the proposal. This was expected – it’s a total bargain. 
• AAG shareholders will likely get to vote on the Scheme in early May. They should vote it down.

• Lithium play Liontown Resources (LTR AU) has now thrice rejected Albemarle Corp (ALB US)‘s proposals. 
• Liontown has labeled Albermarle’s third bid of A$2.50/share as opportunistic. 
• Albemarle has picked up 2.2% in Liontown. But that is dwarfed by Tim Goyder’s (chairman)’s 15% stake, who is not engaged at the current bid price. 

• In this insight, we discuss the potential new inclusions in KOSPI 200 rebalance in May 2023.
• The five stocks that are potential inclusions in KOSPI 200 rebalance in May 2023 include Kumyang, Cosmo Chemical, Dentium, Jeju Air, and Youlchon Chemical. 
• Kumyang and Cosmo Chemical are up on average 177% YTD. We would not chase these two stocks as their share prices have already risen considerably. 

• Liontown Resources (LTR AU) has rejected an unsolicited non-binding privatisation proposal from Albemarle Corp (ALB US) at A$2.50 per share, which is a 63.9% premium to the undisturbed price (27 March).
• The offer is attractive in comparison to peer multiples and historical share prices. Liontown suggests that the offer does not appropriately value the Kathleen Valley Lithium Project.
• A bump to the Board’s desired A$3.00 offer is justifiable based on the Kathleen Valley NPV sensitivity analysis related to spodumene prices. Albemarle remains willing to engage. 

• Core earnings of Kunlun Energy (135 HK) rose 25.2% in FY22, providing solid evidence for its strength against peers. We are delighted to see dollar margin even expanded 4.1%.
• Pace of new project addition has not weakened as it secured 25 new projects in FY22. Collectively, they will increase sales volume by 3.2bn cu.m., 7% of FY22 volume.
• Net cash of Rmb13.6bn equals 28% of share price, making 8.9% ROE look decent. Market earnings forecast is too low; and even so, it trades on just 7.2x FY23 PER.

• Pokarna Ltd (POKR IN) is principally engaged in the business of quarrying, manufacturing & processing and selling of Granite & manufacturing and selling of Apparel under the brand name ‘Stanza’.
• One of the key audit matters related to IT systems risk, and these are reflected by some of the accounting misclassifications.
• Other forensic concerns include high cost of debt on and ICDs and director loans, added WC burden, inventory valuation, etc.

West China Cement’s (WCC) FY 2022 results were overall acceptable. The company reported slightly weaker earnings for its core business in Mainland China, as lower sales volumes (amid COVID-19-related disruptions and the subdued real estate sector) and increased raw material costs more than offset surprisingly positive ASP growth.

Importantly, WCC’s expansion in Africa is taking shape, as its plant in Mozambique has ramped up quickly and achieved high capacity utilisation in the first two years of operations. The company’s plants in Africa enjoy substantially higher ASP than those in China, which should support the overall gross margin.

We expect WCC’s FCF to remain deeply negative in FY 2023, which will lead to a further weakening of its net leverage (2.6x at FYE 2022). We believe FCF may turn positive in FY 2024, when the bulk of the company’s new projects in Africa are due to complete and commence operations.

• Growatt Technology (1833969D CH) , one of the largest providers of PV and storage inverters globally, plans to go public and may seek $500M+ through Hong Kong IPO.
• I view Growatt Technology (1833969D CH) as a high-quality growth company with best-in-class products and solutions, and see significant opportunity in international markets.
• The company is well-positioned to benefit from fast-growing PV inverter and energy storage markets. I am bullish on Growatt Technology IPO and like long-term energy storage story.

• Ultrapar is one of the largest Brazilian companies (USD 12.5bn market cap) with almost 80 years of history and leading positions in the markets in which it operates.
• The company is involved in the LPG (liquid petroleum gas) and fuel distribution, operation of a drugstore chain, the production of ethylene oxide and its derivatives and liquid bulk storage services.
• Its business mix provides stable cash flows as it balances resilient businesses such as the sale of LPG for residential use and fuels for light vehicles.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• ENN Natural Gas
• Japfa Comfeed Indonesia
• Vedanta Resources