In today’s briefing:
- Toei Animation (4816 JP): The Current Playbook
- Trading Strategy of APR on the First Day of IPO
- Pre-IPO 160 Health – The Lack of Moat Has Led to Development Falling Far Short of Expectations
- Astera Labs IPO Preview and Valuation Analysis: Will Pricey IPO Frighten The Investors Off?
- MIXUE/ChaPanda/Good Me Pre-IPO – Peer Comparison
- QuantumPharm (Xtalpi) Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Requires Deep Pockets to Fund Its Cash Burn
Toei Animation (4816 JP): The Current Playbook
- Since the US$550 million secondary placement announcement, Toei Animation (4816 JP)’s shares are down 7.0% from the undisturbed price of JPY18,560 per share (14 February).
- Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive to understand the potential trading pattern. So far, Toei Animation’s shares have followed the pattern of previous large placements.
- The offering will likely be priced on 27 February. Investors participating in previous large Japanese placements tend to secure positive returns.
Trading Strategy of APR on the First Day of IPO
- In this insight, we discuss a trading strategy for APR (278470 KS) which starts trading on 27 February. APR is the most anticipated IPO in Korea so far in 2024.
- Our base case (6 months – 1 year) target price of APR is 370,809 won, which is 48% higher than the IPO price.
- We recommend investors to take some profits off the table (30%-50%) if the share price shoots higher by 100% to 200%+ from the IPO price on the first day.
Pre-IPO 160 Health – The Lack of Moat Has Led to Development Falling Far Short of Expectations
- 160 Health collaborates with medical institutions and then get access to high-caliber medical professionals, which helps to attract patients/other business parties. So, its business model is B2B2C, similar to ClouDr.
- However, ClouDr has much better performance than 160 Health, because ClouDr has established moat/barriers to more effectively monetize medical resources, while 160 Health is clearly lagging behind in this regard.
- 160 Health’s revenue mainly comes from sales of pharmaceutical and healthcare products, whose gross margin is very low. As the competition intensifies, the C-end customer acquisition cost would also increase.
Astera Labs IPO Preview and Valuation Analysis: Will Pricey IPO Frighten The Investors Off?
- Astera Labs, a cloud- and AI connectivity-focused semiconductor company, filed to go public. Top-tier underwriters Morgan Stanley and J.P. Morgan are leading the offering.
- The fabless semiconductor unicorn plans to raise up to $500M. Selling stockholders intend to sell shares and the number of shares is yet to be announced.
- I like the long-term, AI/cloud story. However, the IPO may look too pricey at more than $3B valuation despite the company’s revenue acceleration and improving profitability.
MIXUE/ChaPanda/Good Me Pre-IPO – Peer Comparison
- Mixue Group is looking to raise about US$1bn in its Hong Kong IPO, while Sichuan Baicha (ChaPanda) and Guming Holdings (Good me) are said to be looking to raise US$300m each.
- All three are primarily focussed on providing freshly-made drinks, including freshly-made fruit drinks, and tea, with some selling ice cream, coffee, baked goods and ready to drink beverages as well.
- In this note, we will undertake a peer comparison, including the Hong Kong listed peer, Nayuki Holdings (2150 HK).
QuantumPharm (Xtalpi) Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Requires Deep Pockets to Fund Its Cash Burn
- QuantumPharm (QUP HK) (Xtalpi) is looking to raise US$200m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
- QuantumPharm is a R&D platform, utilizing quantum physics-based first-principles calculation, advanced AI, high-performance cloud computing, and scalable and standardized robotic automation to provide drug and material science R&D solutions.
- In this note, we will talk about the not so positive aspects of the deal.
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