In today’s briefing:
- Kumyang’s Capital Raise Drop: Breaking It Down from an Arb Trading Play
- Upstream Bio Valuation Summary, DCF Analysis Suggests U.S. Business (Ex. COPD) Is Worth ~$1.8B
- Weekly Deals Digest (29 Sep) – Tokyo Metro, CR Beverage, K Bank, Fuji Soft, Sun Art, Xingda, Capitol
Kumyang’s Capital Raise Drop: Breaking It Down from an Arb Trading Play
- Kumyang’s major shareholders are backing the capital raise, committing ₩160B of the ₩450B total. We’re also likely to see some robust price support for the stock rights in early phases.
- Institutional investors still make up about 10% of the SO, with around 8% being active players. These guys could easily start dumping stock rights in bulk.
- Retail holds nearly 50% of the SO, increasing volatility and boosting chances for arb spreads. Kumyang’s stock futures have solid liquidity, making it a prime arb trading setup.
Upstream Bio Valuation Summary, DCF Analysis Suggests U.S. Business (Ex. COPD) Is Worth ~$1.8B
- Upstream Bio, a biotech company focused on developing therapeutics that address severe asthma, CRSwNP and COPD, will price its IPO in October.
- Upstream Bio has raised ~$400M to date. Their last round was a $200M Series B led by private equity firm Enavate Sciences and Venrock Healthcare Capital Partners.
- My DCF analysis suggests that Upstream Bio’s core U.S. business (ex. COPD) may be worth ~$1.8B. The severe asthma and CRSwNP markets represent a potential $10B+ opportunity.
Weekly Deals Digest (29 Sep) – Tokyo Metro, CR Beverage, K Bank, Fuji Soft, Sun Art, Xingda, Capitol
- A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
- ECM developments: Tokyo Metro (9023 JP), K Bank (279570 KS) and China Resources Beverage (CRB HK) IPOs.
- Event-Driven developments: Capitol Health (CAJ AU), Sun Art Retail (6808 HK), Xingda International (1899 HK), Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP), Dyna Mac Holdings (DMHL SP).
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