In today’s briefing:
- FP Partner (7388 JP) Offering-To-Get-Float-To-Get-TOPIX-Inclusion
- ARM Holdings IPO: The Bear Case
- Integral Corporation IPO: Valuation Insights
FP Partner (7388 JP) Offering-To-Get-Float-To-Get-TOPIX-Inclusion
- On 22 August, TSE Growth-listed insurance agent FP Partner (7388 JP) announced a special dividend, a secondary offering of 1.4mm shares, and a move to TSE Prime.
- The equity offering is designed to raise tradable share percentage to meet the TSE Prime listing requirement. The move to Prime on 11 September means a TOPIX inclusion end October.
- The pattern of “Offering To Get Float to Get TOPIX Inclusion” is well-trod. This one has some interesting dynamics.
ARM Holdings IPO: The Bear Case
- ARM Holdings (1822695D US) is the world’s most widely licensed and deployed processor. Softbank Group (9984 JP) seeks to raise about US$6-10 billion by listing ARM on Nasdaq.
- In ARM Holdings IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
- The bear case rests on the deteriorating annualized contract value trajectory, declining ARM-powered chip shipments and revenue, ARM China overhang and red flag transactions involving SoftBank.
Integral Corporation IPO: Valuation Insights
- Integral Corporation (5842 JP) is an independent Japanese private equity firm seeking to raise about US$174 million. The pricing is on 4 September, and the listing is on 20 September.
- We previously discussed the IPO in Integral Corporation IPO: The Bull Case and Integral Corporation IPO: The Bear Case.
- In this note, we discuss forecasts and valuation. Our analysis suggests that the indicative IPO price range of JPY2,800-3,400 per share is unattractive. We would give the IPO a pass.
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