In today’s briefing:
- Cainiao Smart Logistics IPO: The Bear Case
- Lalatech (货拉拉) Pre-IPO: To Understand Revenue Growth from Drivers’ Complaints and Strike
Cainiao Smart Logistics IPO: The Bear Case
- Cainiao Smart Logistics (1437124D HK), a global leader in e-commerce logistics, has filed for a HKEx IPO to raise at least US$1 billion at a US$15-20 billion valuation.
- In Cainiao Smart Logistics IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
- The bear case rests on declining global cross-border market share, China logistics decelerating growth, high related-party transactions, and FCF burn.
Lalatech (货拉拉) Pre-IPO: To Understand Revenue Growth from Drivers’ Complaints and Strike
- Lalatech charges drivers more commissions but less membership fees to raise the general fees.
- Drivers went on strike to protest against the income squeeze, but they did not achieve their target.
- We believe Lalatech is the dominator of the low-end truck-hiring market.
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