Daily Brief Consumer: ZEEKR, Great Wall Motor, BYD and more

In today’s briefing:

ZEEKR IPO Valuation Analysis: Next BYD or Tesla?
A/H Premium Tracker (To 24 Nov 23): H Down Vs A, SOUTHBOUND Selling Continues, Tech Still Sold
Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 24 Nov 23): Chongqing Changan (Bought) Vs BYD (Sold)

ZEEKR IPO Valuation Analysis: Next BYD or Tesla?

ZEEKR is expected to IPO in December. The company plans to raise up to $1B and Geely Auto may purchase additional shares of ZEEKR in a concurrent private placement.
I have a favorable view of the upcoming ZEEKR U.S. IPO and value ZEEKR shares using a 50/50 blend of EV/Sales analysis and long-term discounted cash flows analysis.
ZEEKR’s last round was a $750M Series A in February 2023 at a $13B post-money valuation. My ~$21B target valuation suggests 61% potential upside vs. last round valuation of $13B.

The New and Better (17 weeks old) A-H Monitor has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
Hs with H/A pairs under-perform their As on average. H/A Pair intracorrelation is up and A premia continue to trend better.
SOUTHBOUND and NORTHBOUND were net sells overall. Everybody sold tech.

This is the somewhat-brand-spanking-new Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. We work off the same presentation as the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor.
The same few names continue at the top of the gross flows list – Kweichow Moutai, Contemporary Amperex, Zhongji Innolight, etc, but the nets are changing (and Chongqing Changan)
Last week, NORTHBOUND were again net sellers (RMB -3.16bn), but Shanghai saw net buys. The top two flows were Chongqing Changan Automobile Company (200625 CH) to buy, BYD to sell.

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