In today’s briefing:
- Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM) FY23: 30% YoY, Net Cash, Growth 6.8x PE, And A 7.6% Dividend Yield
- Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) – Less Seasonal Cheer, More New Year’s Resolutions
- Baicha Baidao IPO: The Bear Case
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Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM) FY23: 30% YoY, Net Cash, Growth 6.8x PE, And A 7.6% Dividend Yield
- The Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM) demonstrated a 5-year CAGR of 16%/25% revenue/profit growth with an ROE averaging 20%.
- FY23 surpassed our expectations with 17%/30% revenue and net profit growth. 4Q 2023 high season revenue and profit growth was an astounding 21%/75% YoY.
- The stocks trades at 6.9x/6.2x PE FY23/FY24e with a 7.5% dividend yield (assuming ten centavos/dividend based on FY23 earnings for FY24 and a 50% payout ratio).
Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) – Less Seasonal Cheer, More New Year’s Resolutions
- Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) has revealed more detail on the impact of boycotts stemming from the Gaza conflict on some of its brands, most notably Starbucks but also including Zara.
- Management remains upbeat about the outlook for the expansion of new retail outlets across its brand portfolio in Indonesia and Southeast Asia but has reduced guidance for Starbucks.
- Mitra Adiperkasa remains the best proxy for Indonesian retail with any weakness in the share price an opportunity, with valuations remaining attractive.
Baicha Baidao IPO: The Bear Case
- Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial (SCBCBDID CH), a leading freshly made tea drinks company, will launch an HKEx IPO to raise US$300 million next week, according to press reports.
- In Baicha Baidao IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
- The bear case rests on pedestrian store KPIs, unsustainable historical growth rates, declining contract liabilities, and margin pressure reflecting a fiercely competitive market.