In today’s briefing:
- Asia Ex-Japan Funds: Extremes in Positioning & Momentum
- (Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A:MMA, Boral, Orecorp, Probiotec, CPMC, CIMC Vehicle, Roland DG, Welbe, SciClone
- Postcard from Agra | India’s 3W EV Adaptation On the Ground
- Denso’s Big Multi-Year Toyota Industries (6201) Selldown
- Koito Mfg – Stock Over-Pops on New MTMP/Buyback; There Will Be Overhang
- Ultrajaya Milk (ULTJ IJ) – Dairy and Tea Recovery in Motion
- Last Week in Event SPACE: Lawson, Samsonite, Socionext, ZOZO
Asia Ex-Japan Funds: Extremes in Positioning & Momentum
- This report identifies stocks at the extremes of their positioning or momentum ranges within our Asia Ex-Japan fund universe.
- We have pinpointed eight stocks either at their historical positioning extremes or undergoing significant changes in fund ownership, providing detailed ownership profiles for each.
- Pinduoduo Inc and UltraTech Cement make gains, Sunny Optical sees ownership drift south, New Oriental Education moves off the lows.
(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A:MMA, Boral, Orecorp, Probiotec, CPMC, CIMC Vehicle, Roland DG, Welbe, SciClone
- I tally 53 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
- Two new deals were discussed this week on Smartkarma: MMA Offshore (MRM AU)‘s Scheme with Singapore’s Cyan Renewables; and Sciclone Pharmaceuticals (6600 HK)‘s Scheme.
- Key updates took place on: Boral (BLD AU), Orecorp (ORR AU), Lawson Inc (2651 JP), CPMC (906 HK), CIMC Vehicle (1839 HK), Roland DG (6789 JP), and Welbe (6556 JP).
Postcard from Agra | India’s 3W EV Adaptation On the Ground
- With the “Postcard” series, our objective is to bring to our readers on-ground insights based on interactions across key channels located in tier 2 and tier 3 locations.
- For this postcard, we travel to the magnificent and iconic city of Agra.
- We were pleasantly surprised by the rapid pace of electrification among three-wheelers, which is the topic of this postcard.
Denso’s Big Multi-Year Toyota Industries (6201) Selldown
- We knew this was coming. We did not know HOW it was coming. The news today has to be seen as a bit of a disappointment.
- Why is it a disappointment? Toyota Industries (6201 JP) is not buying back a big chunk, and there is no offering to oblige new investors to take a look.
- This is long, slow, leakage on a company which is not overwhelmingly cheap, where it requires good governance to get out well, and even then…
Koito Mfg – Stock Over-Pops on New MTMP/Buyback; There Will Be Overhang
- With a new Medium-Term Management Plan and a buyback, the stock was cheap as of Thursday’s close. It was less cheap after it went limit up +25% on Friday.
- That put it in the camp of “it may go up more but probably not a lot”. It has told you about big divs and buybacks.
- But model it up and they need to do more buybacks. Both to meet share price gains and the needs of legions of potential cross-holders looking to sell.
Ultrajaya Milk (ULTJ IJ) – Dairy and Tea Recovery in Motion
- Ultrajaya Milk (ULTJ IJ) 4Q2023 and FY2023 confirmed a recovery on both its dairy and carton tea segments, with strong growth and a normalisation of raw material costs boosting margins.
- ULTJ continue to focus on new product launches in dairy and carton tea and growing its distribution network with its new distrbution centre at MM1200 under pilot testing.
- Prospects for FY2024 look healthy with expanding distribution and a number of new products helping to drive growth. Valuations look reasonable versus listed competitor Cisarua Mountain Dairy (CMRY IJ).
Last Week in Event SPACE: Lawson, Samsonite, Socionext, ZOZO
- Lawson Inc (2651 JP)‘s Tender Offer is still too cheap. It is also a somewhat non-transparent and unfair process. And it does not adhere to the METI Fair M&A Guidelines.
- Samsonite (1910 HK)‘s pursuit of a dual listing (primary or secondary?) appears to be put the buyout on the backburner. For now.
- Socionext (6526 JP) and ZOZO Inc (3092 JP) have a large part of the Max Real World Float to displace. Neither of those two names are outlandishly expensive.
💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
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