Daily Brief Consumer: PDD Holdings, Hyatt Hotels Corp Cl A, Duolingo, New York Times Co A, Performance Food Group Co, On The Beach, Ingredion Inc, Instacart and more

• PDD reported C1Q24 top-line, non-GAAP EBIT, and non-GAAP net income 1.3%, 67.0%, and 80.0% vs. our estimate, and 13.9%, 82.0%, and 94.7% vs. consensus, respectively;
• Temu unit economics improvement drove the 1Q beat. Per order outlay on marketing and fulfilment declined 20-25% qoq, we estimate;
• PDD continues to effectively squeeze merchants for its benefit,while also benefiting from weak consumer sentiment in China and overseas. We maintain BUY,and raise TP to US$172, implying 12.3x CY24 PE.

• Hyatt revealed in its Q1 Earnings that the year has started vigourously for them, displaying growth in multiple dimensions and expanding fees. The occupancy and RevPAR trends they have been observing are strong, driven by noteworthy demands across all customer segments. An increase of 5.5% in system-wide RevPAR was seen in Q1 on the back of robust leisure travel trends. While there is expectation of a subdued year-over-year growth rate, the rates are noticeably above pre pandemic levels. They also observed healthy business transient revenue indicating resumption in business travel. Furthermore, Hyatt’s loyalty program saw a growth of 22% over the past year, reaching a total of approximately 46 million members. Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology. In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company. We have added reasonable forecasts of the annualized income statement and cash flows and carried out a DCF valuation of the company using its Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) to determine a forecasted share price. We have further incorporated a sensitivity analysis/ scenario analysis to understand how changes in key assumptions could impact the valuation under 3 scenarios – a base case, a bull case, and a bear case. These additional layers of analysis serve to provide a comprehensive and robust valuation, giving investors a nuanced understanding of the inherent risks and opportunities.

• Duolingo Inc. recently released its Q1 2024 shareholder letter, announcing positive financial results while outlining future initiatives. The company achieved revenue and bookings growth of 45% and 41% respectively and saw active daily users grow by 54% YoY, signaling the effectiveness of their product-driven flywheel. The strategy of offering efficient language tutoring, driving user growth, and converting users to subscribers has proven to be beneficial for the platform. Duolingo also announced record profitability for the quarter. Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology. In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company. We have added reasonable forecasts of the annualized income statement and cash flows and carried out a DCF valuation of the company using its Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) to determine a forecasted share price. We have further incorporated a sensitivity analysis/ scenario analysis to understand how changes in key assumptions could impact the valuation under 3 scenarios – a base case, a bull case, and a bear case. These additional layers of analysis serve to provide a comprehensive and robust valuation, giving investors a nuanced understanding of the inherent risks and opportunities.

• The New York Times Company (NYT) reported a strong beginning to the year in its Q1 2024 earnings. The company’s strategy – aiming to become the essential subscription for people seeking to understand and engage with the world – is performing well, contributing to its sustained growth in a dynamic media environment. Among key drivers of this growth are the company’s diverse products serving various consumer needs and its deeply engaged subscriber base. Additionally, the high level of subscriber engagement observed reinforces NYT’s belief in its ability to grow the digital-only Average Revenue Per User (ARPU), anticipated to rise on a yearly basis, given multiple pricing and monetization levers. Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology. In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company. We have added reasonable forecasts of the annualized income statement and cash flows and carried out a DCF valuation of the company using its Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) to determine a forecasted share price. We have further incorporated a sensitivity analysis/ scenario analysis to understand how changes in key assumptions could impact the valuation under 3 scenarios – a base case, a bull case, and a bear case. These additional layers of analysis serve to provide a comprehensive and robust valuation, giving investors a nuanced understanding of the inherent risks and opportunities.

• Performance Food Group (PFG) reported its fiscal third quarter (Q3) 2024 financial results which revealed the impact of the challenging operating environment amid inclement weather and an inflationary landscape. Despite these adverse conditions, PFG’s Foodservice segment maintained a steady performance, while the Convenience division continued to report difficult top-line trends. In the Foodservice segment, PFG saw rebounding performance, especially in February and March with enhanced independent case growth and reliable chain performance. Stable market share was improved upon, with the company reporting more gains in Q3 than in Q2.
• However, this performance faced headwinds in terms of inflation and deflation with commodities such as cheese affecting overall inflation. For the fiscal fourth quarter (FQ4), a low deflation rate is expected, allowing for better gross and adjusted EBITDA margins. Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology. In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company. We have added reasonable forecasts of the annualized income statement and cash flows and carried out a DCF valuation of the company using its Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) to determine a forecasted share price. We have further incorporated a sensitivity analysis/ scenario analysis to understand how changes in key assumptions could impact the valuation under 3 scenarios – a base case, a bull case, and a bear case. These additional layers of analysis serve to provide a comprehensive and robust valuation, giving investors a nuanced understanding of the inherent risks and opportunities.

The increase of 22% in booked total transaction value (TTV) both in H124 and for this summer, driven by successful expansion into premium and long haul and backed by its pioneering perks, confirm On the Beach’s (OTB’s) progress in addressing a market it estimates to be 5x more valuable than its core Value (3*) business (now just 25% of bookings) as well as more dynamic. Another ‘very big deal’ for OTB is its new ‘transformational’ partnership with Ryanair, its most significant low-cost carrier, ensuring free and fair access to seat supply and marking a more positive relationship, given outstanding litigation on historical refunds. With improved operational leverage yielding a near doubling of adjusted EBITDA in its seasonally quieter H124, OTB expects to meet FY24 market forecasts thanks to similar H2 dynamics, bolstered by B2B restructuring.

• In the Q1 2024 earnings of Ingredion Incorporated, the company exceeded its expectations against a strong comparison with last year’s record first quarter performance. Despite the impacts of extreme cold weather on shipments in the U.S. and the sale of its South Korea business, Ingredion reported net sales volumes improving sequentially. Although consolidated net sales and operating income were lower year-over-year, operating income for Q1 2024 was the second highest in the company’s history, continuing the upward trend from previous years. Over the last five years, Ingredion has delivered 5% net sales growth and an adjusted operating income compounded annual growth rate of 7%.
• Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology. In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company. We have added reasonable forecasts of the annualized income statement and cash flows and carried out a DCF valuation of the company using its Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) to determine a forecasted share price. We have further incorporated a sensitivity analysis/ scenario analysis to understand how changes in key assumptions could impact the valuation under 3 scenarios – a base case, a bull case, and a bear case. These additional layers of analysis serve to provide a comprehensive and robust valuation, giving investors a nuanced understanding of the inherent risks and opportunities.

• Instacart kicked off the fiscal year 2024 with positive financial results, as announced during its first-quarter earnings call. Being the largest online grocery marketplace in North America, the company has delivered substantial access to 98% of families through delivery and pickup from over 1,500 retail banners. This represents an unprecedented 85% of U.S. grocery sales, indicating a solid growth trajectory and the company’s dominance in the sector. The partnership established between Instacart and Uber has amplified the company’s reach, adding hundreds of thousands of restaurants to its platform overnight. This has created a comprehensive blend of grocery and restaurant options for Instacart customers, raising the bar and value for its Instacart+ membership. Moreover, the platform now caters to more food needs of consumers, driving sales and growth for retail and brand partners. Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology. In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company. We have added reasonable forecasts of the annualized income statement and cash flows and carried out a DCF valuation of the company using its Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) to determine a forecasted share price. We have further incorporated a sensitivity analysis/ scenario analysis to understand how changes in key assumptions could impact the valuation under 3 scenarios – a base case, a bull case, and a bear case. These additional layers of analysis serve to provide a comprehensive and robust valuation, giving investors a nuanced understanding of the inherent risks and opportunities.