In today’s briefing:
- Oriental Land (4661) As Nikkei 225 Candidate – What Is Float? What Is “The Tricky Twist”?
- MTCH 4Q22: More Bullish Than You Think
- Sky Perfect JSAT (Buy) – Q3 22 Results Reaction: Satellite Growth Offsets Media Weakness
- Procter & Gamble: Recent Earnings Reaffirm My Cautious View On The Stock
- Could the Turnaround Be Due to a Change in Management?
- Hesai Group Pre-IPO – Peer Comparison – Not Really the Largest, Globally or Locally
Oriental Land (4661) As Nikkei 225 Candidate – What Is Float? What Is “The Tricky Twist”?
- As discussed in Nikkei 225 March Review – Quiddity Leaderboard (Jan 2023) (and earlier versions), Oriental Land (4661 JP) is a candidate to join the Nikkei 225 in March 2023.
- As of early January, it was the top-ranked impact name with 11.8 days of ADV to buy, and if it underperformed the Nikkei from there, there’d be more to buy.
- With the data collection period now complete, it is top-ranked, still. And it is still ~10-12 days to buy. Understanding shareholder structure, however, is key. So I dive in.
MTCH 4Q22: More Bullish Than You Think
- Inline performance and inline guidance…the stock mistakingly traded down on Tinder’s optically weak sub growth.
- Longer term, CEO BK Kim is making the right moves reorganizing the company to focus on the growth engines (Tinder, Hinge), the idiosyncrantic drivers (Asia), and cost cutting (Evergreen Brands).
- Reiterated 2023 guidance will prove conservative, with the stock still trading at alltime lows despite the 30% move up so far this year…we buy this dip.
Sky Perfect JSAT (Buy) – Q3 22 Results Reaction: Satellite Growth Offsets Media Weakness
- As expected space segment revenue growth accelerated as global/mobile sales took off offsetting media revenue erosion
- User trends in the video business remain weak although Q3 subscriber losses improved QoQ despite this being the seasonally weakest quarter
- We are leaving our forecasts unchanged and remain at Buy
Procter & Gamble: Recent Earnings Reaffirm My Cautious View On The Stock
- Procter & Gamble’s share price appears to be running ahead of business fundamentals.
- P&G has a limited upside over the short to medium term, according to the recent earnings report.
- The company has a free cash flow point of view, but has a limited upside over a short-term term.
Could the Turnaround Be Due to a Change in Management?
- Fujikura and JVC Kenwood, which could generate cash flow by restructuring their business portfolios, were evaluated as “value stocks” due to the gap between their corporate value and stock prices.
- Fujikura and JVC Kenwood haven’t posted record profits in 17 and 11 years, respectively. The key to solving why it took so long may be the change in top management.
- If management doesn’t listen, structural reforms won’t be implemented, even if shareholders repeatedly suggest restructuring business portfolio. This is why it’s important for shareholders to replace management that continues underperforming.
Hesai Group Pre-IPO – Peer Comparison – Not Really the Largest, Globally or Locally
- Hesai Group (HSAI US) is looking to raise at least US$100m in its upcoming US IPO.
- HSAI is a manufacturer of three-dimensional light detection and ranging (Lidar) solutions. It has shipped over 103,000 Lidar units from 2017 to the end of 2022.
- In this note, we will undertake a peer comparison with domestic and US-listed peers.
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