In today’s briefing:
- Weekly Deals Digest (08 Sep) – Midea, Fuji Soft, Pasco, Seven & I, Xingda, CPMC, PSC, Rex, Latin Res
- The Born Korea IPO Valuation Analysis
- (Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Seven & I, Virgin Money, PSC Insurance, Rex Minerals, Namoi, CPMC, China TCM
- Quiddity ASX Sep 24 Rebal: Two Big Surprises; Short Interest Trends; Stunning Trade Performance
- 99 Speedmart Holdings IPO Trading – Poised for a Steady Listing
- [Miniso Group (MNSO US, BUY, TP US$24) TP Change]: Management Might Have Been Overly Optimistic
- Chinese Inbound Foreign Tourist Arrivals Up 153% Y/Y in H124?! Much Ado About (Almost) Nothing
Weekly Deals Digest (08 Sep) – Midea, Fuji Soft, Pasco, Seven & I, Xingda, CPMC, PSC, Rex, Latin Res
- A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
- ECM developments: Midea Group Co Ltd A (000333 CH) premarketing its H Share listing, Terumo Corp (4543 JP) placement and 99 Speed Mart Retail Holdings (99SPD MK) IPO.
- Event-Driven developments: Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP), Pasco Corp (9232 JP), Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP), Xingda International (1899 HK), CPMC Holdings (906 HK), Psc Insurance (PSI AU).
The Born Korea IPO Valuation Analysis
- According to our valuation analysis, it suggests an implied price of 34,365 won, which is 27% higher than the high end of the IPO price range.
- We estimate The Born Korea to generate sales of 467.7 billion won (up 13.1% YoY) and operating profit of 31.4 billion won (up 22.8% YoY) in 2024.
- We believe a premium to comps’ valuation is appropriate for The Born Korea mainly due to its higher sales growth, higher ROE, stronger balance sheet, and higher profit margins.
(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Seven & I, Virgin Money, PSC Insurance, Rex Minerals, Namoi, CPMC, China TCM
- I tally 40 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
- Two new deals were discussed this week: Offers for Virgin Money UK Plc (VUK AU) and PSC Insurance (PSI AU).
- Key updates took place on Rex Minerals (RXM AU), Namoi Cotton (NAM AU), CPMC (906 HK), China TCM (570 HK), Seven & I (3382 JP), and Fuji Soft (9749 JP) .
Quiddity ASX Sep 24 Rebal: Two Big Surprises; Short Interest Trends; Stunning Trade Performance
- The ADDs/DELs for the ASX index family for the September 2024 index rebal event were announced after market close on Friday 6th September 2024.
- In this insight, we take a final look at the flow expectations for each of these index changes.
- We have also highlighted certain names with noticeable movements in short interest.
99 Speedmart Holdings IPO Trading – Poised for a Steady Listing
- 99 Speed Mart Retail Holdings (99SPD MK) raised around US$530m in its Malaysia IPO. The IPO had been a mix of primary and secondary shares.
- 99 Speed Mart Retail Holdings (99 Speedmart) operates the “99 Speedmart” chain of mini-market outlets, retailing daily necessities across Malaysia.
- We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the demand and trading dynamics.
[Miniso Group (MNSO US, BUY, TP US$24) TP Change]: Management Might Have Been Overly Optimistic
- Miniso (MNSO) reported C2Q24 revenue (3.2%)/1.9% vs. our estimate/consensus. Non-GAAP NI (5.6%)/(2.7%) vs. our estimate/consensus.
- Recent weak economic data in both China and U.S.,along with MNSO’s deceleration in overseas average store sales;
- We cut TP from US$34 to US$24 and maintain BUY.
Chinese Inbound Foreign Tourist Arrivals Up 153% Y/Y in H124?! Much Ado About (Almost) Nothing
- Media rife with narrative of booming inbound foreign tourism to China
- But the numbers are well below historical highs, and climbing up from low base
- Chinese tourists, not foreign, determine strength of Chinese tourism recovery
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