Daily Brief Consumer: LG Energy Solution, CP ALL PCL, XPeng, Ford Motor Co, Netflix Inc, 4imprint and more

• Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
• Things are starting to pickup on the IPO front with the first somewhat sizeable US ADR filing done this week.
• Placements deal flow continued to stay strong this week, even as the performance didn’t.

• CP ALL is a unique and high-quality proxy for the recovery in domestic consumer demand plus increasing tourist arrivals, which should soon see a further boost from China.
• We would expect a strong finish to the year with an even stronger pickup in 2023 across convenience stores, Lotus supermarkets and hypermarkets, as well as Siam Makro cash-and-carry. 
• CP ALL is a top growth pick in Thailand, with EPS expected to grow by +35% and 25% for FY2023E and FY2024E, with ongoing expansion and economic recovery.

• Xpeng announced price cuts on existing G3i, P5 and P7, which surprised the market on negative side, potentially indicating weaker demand and profitability
• Recent management changes has also hurt sentiment with the new CEO from a ‘traditional’ car background
• Xpeng’s share price has bottomed in our view and we expect a 2H’23 recovery with improving fundamentals

• Softening macroeconomic circumstances in the Eurozone and cooling inflation in the U.S. could reignite demand.
• China’s reopening might smooth supply chains.
• Ford Motor Company’s EU market share is expanding, and its product-driven approach has sustained customer loyalty in North America.

• Netflix is now up 50% from its lows on hope that advertising and paid sharing drive a revenue reacceleration and multiple rerating. Part B has happened.
• Advertising uptake will be slow. But consensus has 55M incremental ad-subs (20% of the total) and $8B in revenue assumed in 2025! 
• Netflix intends on keeping content spending flat for the next few years, raising the importance of its hit rate – which has not been Netflix’s forte.

4imprint’s update shows the group continuing to trade strongly through Q422 and we again upgrade estimates. FY22 revenue will be $1.14bn, or 3% ahead of our earlier modelling, and 45% ahead of the prior year. An 8.8% adjusted operating margin compares with our earlier assumption of 8.2%. We edge our revenue forecasts up by 3% for FY23 and FY24, but assume some modest settling back in margin to reflect additional operating costs to support the increased scale of the business. As before, we suggest management may propose an FY22 special dividend, given net cash of $86.7m at the year-end.