Daily Brief Consumer: JD.com , Pop Mart International Group L, GS Retail, Chow Tai Fook Jewellery, Carnival Corp, Betterware de Mexico Sab de CV, OPAP SA and more

• The June rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI INDEX, HSTECH and HSIII indices will use today’s closing prices to cap the index constituent weights at 8%/12%. This will lead to large flows.
• The round-trip trade across all stocks across the four indices is estimated at HK$32bn (US$4.1bn).
• Li Auto, Alibaba, NetEase, Zijin Mining, SenseTime and BYD Electronics are the largest buys while Tencent, Meituan, JD.com, Kuaishou Technology, Xiaomi and HSBC Holdings are the largest sells.

• In 1Q24, Pop Mart International Group L (9992 HK)‘s international sales grew around 250% yoy, and made up around one quarter of sales (vs. 17% of sales in 2023). 
• I now expect 39% sales growth in 2024, driven by 140% yoy growth in the international business and 18% growth in domestic China business. 
• I further expect a 50% yoy growth in net profit growth in 2024 driven by a 0.8ppt increase in gross margin and 0.5ppt in operating leverage. 

• On 3 June, GS Retail (007070 KS) announced that it will spin off Parnas Hotel and Freshmeat subsidiaries to simplify its business structure and enhance shareholder value.
• The company plans to create a new entity tentatively called Parnas Holdings which will include Parnas hotel and Freshmeat (a meat processing company). 
• We have a positive view of GS Retail’s decision to conduct this equity spin off which simplifies the business structures and it could raise the valuation multiples of GS Retail. 

• The market’s assumption of no special dividends in Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK)‘s upcoming FY24 result is conservative, and this does not fit into its usual pattern. 
• Should it pay special DPS, the dividend yield may reach an attractive 10.7%. With its net cash position, CTF can financially maintain the average 135.6% payout ratio. 
• A return to its historical average dividend yield of 7.4% means that CTF’s share price will need to go up by 45% from the current level.

• Carnival Corporation is the world’s largest cruise ship operator with a large fleet and significant market share
• The company was severely impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, halting service for 15 months and taking on substantial debt
• Since resuming cruises in July 2021, Carnival has seen a rebound in revenues driven by strong demand for post-COVID travel, but still faces challenges with cashflow and debt sustainability

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• We are reiterating our Buy rating, $22.50 price target and projections for Betterware de Mexico after reviewing the June catalog.
• Despite the return of normalized comparisons, as supply chain issues began to normalize last year, June was another solid month for Betterware, as the catalog registered further SKU growth, continued higher levels of newness, and lower discounting.
• Further, these results were achieved despite the company pulling back from prior categories (Better Kids and Pets), making the YoY gains even more impressive.

OPAP delivered good revenue growth in Q124 while profitability declined, mainly due to the upfront investment to support a major new product launch, which should boost revenue as the year progresses and provide better leverage on the higher cost base. The broad message is of strong online growth with resilience in its land-based activities, which gives management confidence to reiterate its guidance for the year.