Daily Brief Consumer: Currys PLC, Naspers , Xinyi Glass Holdings, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, US Treasury (10 Yr Generic), Wingstop Inc, Booking Holdings, Rivian Automotive , Scandic Hotels Group Ab, PDD Holdings and more

• Currys has rejected a second proposal from Elliot, at 67p/share, 8% higher. The Board rejected this second proposal, stating it undervalued the company and its potential for future growth.
• My fair value estimate is 76p/share (FY24e PE of 10.2x vs 9.1x currently, and FY25e PE of 8.9x vs 7.9x currently). JD.com’s surely negotiating a friendly offer ahead of 18 March.
• A major shareholder advises not to engage with Elliot unless a 75p/share proposal is tabled. JD.com, a trade buyer, should be capable of meeting the Board’s expectations. Reiterate long.

• During the last 3 weeks, Naspers and Prosus have come under pressure relative to their underlying portfolios.
• Since reaching a new all-time low on the 12th of February, Naspers’ discount has widened by 6 percentage points to 40.7%.
• Prosus’ discount has widened 5.7 percentage points to 35.4%. Naspers and Prosus are down 9% and 8% respectively, relative to a decline of 1.9% for Tencent in ZAR.

• Xinyi Glass Holdings (868 HK) reported FY23 results, with net profit up 5% yoy and sales up 4% yoy. 
• The company announced a final dividend of HKD0.37 per share, resulting in a full year dividend of HKD0.63 per share, which is a yield of 8%. 
• Overall the results look resilient, with auto glass segment a bit weaker than expected and float glass segment stronger than expected. 

• With IPOs becoming a place for founders to recoup their capital, and the desire for post-IPO growth declining, IPOs are a place for retail investors to speculate using scarce liquidity.
• If a market is provided that recovers funds without relying on IPOs, IPOs will become larger and more selective, which brings them closer to the investment focus of institutional investors.
• The expansion of the private equity market will play a significant role in the “industry restructuring,” as more M＆As between private companies and public companies are expected to take place.

• We continue to see more and more global indexes and Sectors breaking out to new highs. This is classic bull market behavior. The latest breakouts: Israel, Germany, and Sweden
• Our bullish outlook (since early November 2023) on global equities (MSCI ACWI) remains intact; continue to ride this trend higher, and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities.
• We continue to get more evidence suggesting the US Dollar (DXY) is rolling over, and quite likely that global sovereign 10-year yields are rolling over as well. Risk-on.

• The Wingstop Fiscal Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Earnings highlighted the company’s substantial progress with its strategies involving same-store sales growth, brand partner returns, and growth acceleration.
• An eye-catching declaration from Wingstop was that 2023 was its strongest financial year on record, demonstrated simultaneously through its industry-leading results and marking its 20th consecutive year of same-store sales growth.
• Furthermore, Wingstop managed to grow to over $3.5 billion in system-wide sales- a growth spurt of 27%- coupled with the opening of a record-breaking 255 net new restaurants..

• Booking Holdings recently reported solid Q4 and full-year 2023 results due to global leisure travel demand resilience.
• Room nights grew by 9% YoY, and revenue of $4.8 billion alongside adjusted EBITDA of $1.5 billion exceeded expectations.
• Non-GAAP earnings per share also grew by 29% YoY, attributed to a reduced share count from the previous year.

• This is our first report on automobile major, Rivian Automotive.
• The company has made significant progress, doubling its production and deliveries and surpassing its initial production guidance by over 7,000 vehicles.
• The production ramp-up and introduction of new technologies came with challenges, but the company believes that the gained experience will be helpful in executing its 2024 plan.

Newly confirmed strong finances (just 0.6x net debt/adjusted EBITDA including convertible loan) and continued Nordic market resilience, allied with multiple growth initiatives, are justifiably reinforcing Scandic’s confidence. Moves into economy (Scandic Go) and Germany mark a widening and accelerating hotel pipeline with clear scope to grow (4% of the estate vs pre-pandemic 11%), while a step-change in digitalisation via the new Oracle OPERA Cloud and enhanced loyalty programme are expected to drive material efficiencies and guest engagement. Financial flexibility should allow the company to address concerns about the maturity of the convertible loan (SEK1.2bn) in October. Consensus FY24 pre-IFRS 16 EBITDA forecast of SEK2.5bn give an EV/EBITDA of c 4.7x.

• We expect PDD to report CY4Q23 top-line and non-GAAP net income 14.3% and 21.2% vs. consensus. Main model changes are increased Temu revenue per order and PDD take-rate;
• Temu continued increasing prices despite the holiday shopping season, and merchants reported that Temu began charging service fees. PDD upgraded its ads tools, which we expect boosted China take rate.
• We maintain our BUY rating and raise our TP to US$ 178.