In today’s briefing:
- Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 28Sep23) : Wuxi Apptec, Longi Green BUYS, BYD a SELL
- Tesla Q3 Deliveries Are Looking Ugly
- Pal Group’s 3Coins: Coining It
- Pinduoduo (PDD US): Growth Cadence Matters
Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 28Sep23) : Wuxi Apptec, Longi Green BUYS, BYD a SELL
- This is the brand spanking new Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. We work off the same presentation as the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor.
- The data on liquid names is presented for 5 days and four weeks and anything seen can be ranked in tables or selected and charted (names, sectors, outperformance, etc).
- Please play with nifty interactive tables+charts. We welcome feedback. This 4-day week saw RMB 17.5bn+ of net selling. Back to the trenches!
Tesla Q3 Deliveries Are Looking Ugly
- Market consensus estimates for Q3 deliveries have been falling so hard and fast they now approach my formerly well below market estimate.
- Sentiment, however, remains largely optimistic as analysts attribute the weakness to factory shutdowns for “updates”. We’ll see.
- Tesla is expected to report results before the market opens on Monday.
Pal Group’s 3Coins: Coining It
- Pal Group posted record sales in FY2022 partly because fashion retail recovered but mostly because of it has a huge hit on its hands: variety store 3Coins.
- Cheap variety stores have always been popular and are becoming even more so as prices rise and people spend more on the home.
- 3Coins has doubled sales in 2 years but expects continued strong growth going forward. With fashion sales also improving, Pal Group is one of few solid bets in lifestyle retailing.
Pinduoduo (PDD US): Growth Cadence Matters
- We reviewed our PDD investment thesis trying to incorporate and make sense of various channel checks and sell-side’s research which are often inconsistent and even conflicting.
- While there are many unknowns and ambiguities, we are convinced the street still significantly underestimates PDD’s growth outlook for 2H23, and fails to see a slowdown in FY24.
- Our price target remain unchanged as lower target P/E multiple (to reflect slowdown prospect) is offset by higher FY23 earnings which flow to outer years.
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