Daily Brief Consumer: Budweiser Brewing APAC , APR, Amer Sports , Ginebra San Miguel , Berli Jucker, Dada Nexus , Food Empire Holdings, Duolingo, Performance Food Group Co, Floor & Decor Holdings and more

• Budweiser Brewing APAC (1876 HK) has seen investors run for the hills over the last year. The halving of the stock price could mean deletion from passive portfolios.
• Other Hong Kong listed brewers, China Resources Beer Holdings (291 HK) and Tsingtao Brewery Co Ltd H (168 HK) have been beaten down too and have underperformed their Asian peers.
• The deletion from passive portfolios could provide a buying opportunity in Budweiser Brewing APAC (1876 HK) at the end of February (or earlier if the stock drops due to positioning).

• APR announced it will delay its IPO. Now, APR’s book building has been postponed to 2 to 8 February. The IPO price range remains the same.
• The company has provided updated preliminary sales and operating profits for 2023 in the revised IPO prospectus. Revenue was a bit light but OP was better than expected in 4Q23.
• Our base case valuation of APR is 370,809 won per share which represents an 85% upside from the high end of the bankers’ valuation range (200,000 won).

• The biggest risk for Amer Sports is its excessive leverage. It had net debt of $5.9 billion and equity of only $8.8 million at the end of 3Q 2023.
• Many investors are likely to emphasize the negatives more (especially the excessive leverage and inconsistent operating margins), rather than the positives such as China representing increasing percentage of total sales. 
• Amer Sports is trying to raise nearly $1 billion in this IPO which could value the company at about $10 billion. 

Key points (machine generated)

• GSMI is a leader in the Filipino spirits industry and is best known for its flagship brand Ginebra San Miguel, the largest gin brand in the world by sales volume.
• Local companies, including GSMI, Tanduay, and Emperador, dominate the spirits industry in the Philippines.
• Despite lacking global brand recognition, GSMI holds a strong position in the local market, although smaller players such as The Keepers Inc. importing foreign brands may pose competition in the long run.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• Berli Jucker remains a core proxy for consumer recovery and increasing tourism numbers in Thailand, with earnings set to recover in 2024 driven by modern retail and packaging.
• Modern retail through Big C has resumed its expansion momentum across all formats with Big C Mini driving growth and supporting its omnichannel efforts, with rental income also recovering.
• The packaging business was impacted by the sluggish Vietnamese economy which impacted aluminium cans but new products and strong performance from glass should support growth in 2024. Valuations look depressed.

• (I didn’t want to send it out right away, because I wanted to proofread my post before sending it, and unfortunately DADA is already up 10% since writing 🙁 )
• Recently Dada Nexus (DADA) , a Chinese last mile delivery service and on demand retail platform reported that about 500mn RMB ($70mn US) of revenue and costs were overstated for the first 3 reported quarters of 2023.
• This news came right after 2 JD executives had taken over management of the company in December last year.

• While Singapore’s exports have lagged behind Taiwan and Korea in Nov-Dec 2023, they have showed signs of recovery after a year of steep drops.
• External factors also affect the prospects of the iEdge SG Advanced Manufacturing Index’s most traded stocks.
• Some of the most traded index stocks, such as Yangzijiang Shipbuilding, Dyna-Mac and Food Empire, have high P/B ratios compared to their historical averages, indicating strong market valuation.

• Duolingo, a leading language learning app inventor, recorded a spectacular Q3.
• The company’s revenue growth has caused it to revise earnings predictions upward, forecasting a 40% year-over-year growth.
• In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

• This is our first report on the Performance Food Group Company (PFG).
• The company delivered its fiscal first quarter 2024 earnings and in their earnings call, the company’s management highlighted the company’s strong financial results in the quarter, despite challenging macroeconomic dynamics.
• PFG’s top line performance slightly missed its guidance range, though its adjusted EBITDA surpassed the high end of the guidance range.

• This is our first report on Floor & Decor Holdings, a multi-channel specialty retailer of hard surface flooring and related accessories.
• The company posted its fiscal 2023 third quarter results.
• In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.