In today’s briefing:
- APR IPO Book-Building Results Analysis
- Tod’s: Another Cheap Shot at Privatization After Failed Attempt in 2022
- SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Three Potential Changes in June
- Shareholder Proposals Likely a Focus at 2024 AGM Are ROE, P/B, and Parent-Subsidiary Listings
- LifeVantage Corporation – Raising EPS & EBITDA Estimates; Trimming Sales
APR IPO Book-Building Results Analysis
- APR reported a very strong IPO book-building results. APR IPO price has been determined at 250,000 won, which is 25% higher than the high end of the IPO price range.
- A total of 1,969 institutional investors participated in this IPO book-building. The demand ratio was 663 to 1. APR IPO will start trading on 26 February.
- Our base case valuation of APR is target price of 370,809 won per share which represents a 48% upside from the IPO price of 250,000 won.
Tod’s: Another Cheap Shot at Privatization After Failed Attempt in 2022
- As we have long predicted LVMH is making a cheap and sneaky offer for Tod’s SpA (TOD IM).
- LVMH is doing it via wholly controlled L Catterton to confuse minority holders
- L Catterton = LVMH, and the only reason for the current proposal is to be able to pay Della Valle a much higher price in a private transaction later on.
SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Three Potential Changes in June
- Early days, but there could be three changes for the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index at the June rebalance. Two names are reversals of the December changes.
- Passive trackers will need to buy between 1.5-3.6 days of ADV on the inclusions and sell 1.1-1.4 days of ADV on the deletions.
- There are a couple of stocks that are close to passing/failing the liquidity tests and a couple close to cutoff ranks. That could result in further changes to the index.
Shareholder Proposals Likely a Focus at 2024 AGM Are ROE, P/B, and Parent-Subsidiary Listings
- With ISS’s plan to resume ROE criteria and TSE’s mention of P/B, more shareholder proposals calling for stronger shareholder returns due to stagnant stock prices and ROEs can be expected.
- Since over 30% of listed companies have major shareholders holding 20% or more of their interests, the voting behavior of domestic institutions is key to the passage of shareholder proposals.
- With TSE’s disclosure request regarding the significance of parent-subsidiary listings, this matter will become another focus of the AGM in business portfolio reform and securing the interests of minority shareholders.
LifeVantage Corporation – Raising EPS & EBITDA Estimates; Trimming Sales
- We have updated our models following the company’s 2QFY24 (December) earnings release.
- We are raising our EPS estimates for FY24 (June) to $0.60 from $0.55, FY25 (June) to $0.70 from $0.65, and FY26 (June) to $0.80 from $0.75. Since 2QFY24 beat our previous forecast by $0.06, we are essentially flowing through that upside.
- Our $0.60 EPS estimate for FY24 is toward the lower end of management’s new range of $0.57-0.67, which was raised from $0.52-0.62 at the time of the release.
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