In today’s briefing:
- [Alibaba (BABA US, BUY, TP US$100) TP Change]: On Track for the Great Turnaround…Reiterate BUY
- Time To Buy China/Gold
- A/H Premium Tracker (To 16 Aug 2024): SB/NB Volumes WAAAAAY Down; AH Premia Down Small
- 99 Speedmart Holdings IPO – Continued Expanding Its Network. Sales and Earnings Kept Up
- ECM Weekly (19th Aug 2024) – Midea, China Res, WeRide, FirstCry, ACME, Gadgil, 99 Speed, Hind Zinc
- Consumer Tales Aug Wk#3: Ola’s Dream Ride, Shopee’s SE Asia Lead, Jollibee’s Joyful 2Q
- Ingredion Incorporated: Will They Survive The Risk of Market Saturation in Texturizing and Healthful Solutions? – Major Drivers
- Inter Parfums Inc.: Will The Management’s Enhanced E-commerce & Digital Strategy Yield Dividends? – Major Drivers
- V.F. Corporation: Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) Growth & Omnichannel Enhancement As A Critical Growth Lever! – Major Drivers
- CVS Health Corporation: Strategic Leverage in Pharmacy Benefit Management (PBM) and Insurance Operations! – Major Drivers
[Alibaba (BABA US, BUY, TP US$100) TP Change]: On Track for the Great Turnaround…Reiterate BUY
- BABA reported C1Q24 top line, adjusted EBITA and non-GAAP net profit (2.7%), 5.5% and in-line vs. consensus.
- E-Commerce GMV recovery is the most positive of all. TTG ad-revenues (CMR) trailed GMV growth but we see the two closing the gap in C2H24
- Besides stabilizing e-commerce, BABA is on track of transforming itself from China’s eBay to China’s Microsoft. AI-related cloud revenue grew 100% YoY.
Time To Buy China/Gold
- Gold breaks above MONTHLY bull flag suggesting possible move to 3000.
- Is China ready to duplicate prior move we witnessed in Nikkei?
- BABA looks technically attractive and could reach par by year-end.
A/H Premium Tracker (To 16 Aug 2024): SB/NB Volumes WAAAAAY Down; AH Premia Down Small
- Miserable economic data, minimal other data. It was a VERY quiet week in terms of gross volumes as per the SOUTHBOUND and NORTHBOUND monitors.
- SOUTHBOUND net buyer for 28th week in a row. ETFs and Tencent strong (14 of 15 days net bought). NORTHBOUND outflows small. Record foreign capital flight extends.
- As expected (with AH 20d Premia returns at multi-year highs 2wks ago), AH Premia fell slightly, narrow premia falling more than wide premia. I continue to expect more H-vs-A gains.
99 Speedmart Holdings IPO – Continued Expanding Its Network. Sales and Earnings Kept Up
- 99 Speed Mart Retail Holdings (99SPD MK) is looking to raise US$530m in its Malaysia IPO. The IPO will be a mix of primary and secondary shares.
- 99 Speed Mart Retail Holdings (99 Speedmart) operates the “99 Speedmart” chain of mini-market outlets, retailing daily necessities across Malaysia.
- In our previous note, we looked at the firm’s past performance. In this note, we look at the updates since.
ECM Weekly (19th Aug 2024) – Midea, China Res, WeRide, FirstCry, ACME, Gadgil, 99 Speed, Hind Zinc
- Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
- On the IPO front, BrainBees contiued along Ola Electric‘s path, ensuring that India’s ECM wave will continue, for now.
- Once again there was only one placement this week, that too in India, just like the week before.
Consumer Tales Aug Wk#3: Ola’s Dream Ride, Shopee’s SE Asia Lead, Jollibee’s Joyful 2Q
- Welcome to Consumer Tales & Trends, your weekly roundup of the latest corporate developments, investment reports and sector events in the consumer industry.
- Ola Electric (OLAELEC IN) has surged 75% from its IPO issue price. For investors wondering about potential upside, we present our base-to-bullish case valuation range for Ola Electric’s stock price.
- Sea (SE US) revised Shopee’s 2024 GMV growth outlook to the mid-20% range. Jollibee Foods(JFC PM)‘s impressive June quarter results stand out against broader trend of weaker sales in QSR sector.
Ingredion Incorporated: Will They Survive The Risk of Market Saturation in Texturizing and Healthful Solutions? – Major Drivers
- Ingredion Incorporated reported second-quarter 2024 earnings that surpassed expectations, highlighting a robust recovery in volumes and significant growth in profitability.
- Adjusted operating income saw an 8% increase while gross margins expanded by 240 basis points, despite a 9% reduction in sales mainly attributable to lower raw material costs and a previous divestiture in South Korea.
- Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.
Inter Parfums Inc.: Will The Management’s Enhanced E-commerce & Digital Strategy Yield Dividends? – Major Drivers
- Inter Parfums’ second quarter earnings for 2024 provides a comprehensive update on the company’s performance and strategic direction in the fragrance market.
- CEO Jean Madar discussed the strategic product launches and collaborations with notable brand ambassadors such as John Legend, Victoria Song, and Jayson Tatum, aimed at leveraging celebrity influence to enhance brand value and appeal, particularly among younger demographics.
- The introduction of John Legend as the face of Montblanc Legend and the continuation of partnerships like those with Victoria Song for Jimmy Choo highlight the company’s effort to marry traditional and modern advertising tactics.
V.F. Corporation: Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) Growth & Omnichannel Enhancement As A Critical Growth Lever! – Major Drivers
- VF Corporation’s first quarter earnings for fiscal year 2025 highlighted both achievements and challenges the company faces as it continues its transformation.
- In its execution of the Reinvent transformation program, VF Corporation is focused on improving profitability and operational efficiency.
- The company reported $50 million in cost savings during the quarter, contributing to its target of $300 million in savings, which it anticipates will be fully realized in the profit and loss statement by the end of the fiscal year.
CVS Health Corporation: Strategic Leverage in Pharmacy Benefit Management (PBM) and Insurance Operations! – Major Drivers
- In the second quarter of 2024, CVS Health reported mixed financial results, underscored by significant achievements and notable challenges.
- The company delivered an adjusted earnings per share of $1.83 and saw revenues exceeding $91 billion, with an operating cash flow of $8 billion for the first half of the year.
- This was supported by a strong performance in the Health Services and Pharmacy & Consumer Wellness segments.
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