Daily Brief China: Zhejiang Expressway Co H, Suzhou Novosense Microelectron, China Mobile, Porton Pharma Solutions, PDD Holdings, Shandong Weigao Group Medical Polymer Co, Seazen (Formerly Future Land) and more

• On the 6 November 2023, Zhejiang Expressway Co H (576 HK) announced its rights offering on both its H-Shares and its A-Shares, previously mooted on 23 May.
• The rights were discussed by Travis Lundy in Zhejiang Expressway (576 HK) Rights Offering – The Dynamics May Be Interesting. He liked the stock.  That was a good call. 
• The current implied stub – net of Expressway’s 40.3% look-through stake in Zheshang Securities (601878 CH) – is back to pre-Covid levels.  I’d be looking to unwind the stub here. 

• STAR 50 Index is a tech-focused, blue-chip index in Mainland China which tracks the top 50 largest and most liquid names in the STAR market of the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
• In this insight, we take a look at our expectations for potential ADDs and DELs for the STAR 50 index during the March 2024 index rebal event.
• I currently expect three changes for the STAR 50 index in March 2024.

• The New and Better (5mos old) A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
• SOUTHBOUND flows were net negative (ETFs negative, high-div SOEs positive) and NORTHBOUND flows a small net sell. AH premia rose slightly on average. Especially at narrow premia.
• STILL time to go long Hs vs As for the new year. 52wk wide discounts were just four weeks ago. Wide A/H premia in renewables space look vulnerable.

• The ChiNext Index represents the performance of the 100 largest and most liquid A-share stocks listed on the ChiNext Market of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange.
• The ChiNext 50 index is a subset of the ChiNext Index and it consists of the top 50 names in the ChiNext index with the highest daily average turnover.
• In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs and DELs in the June 2024 index rebal event.

• We expect PDD to report the highest growth in topline for 4Q23 over last three years. In particular, we believe its bottom line will beat by wide margin.
• But easy days are gone for PDD’s domestic e-commerce business and high base will kick in from 1Q24, resulting in tough comps, notable deceleration and potentially short-term share price volatility.
• We see 20% upside to current PDD valuation by assigning 20xPE to our US$12 billion adjusted net profit estimate for 2024.

• Due to centralized procurement and anti-corruption campaign in 23H2, negative YoY revenue growth in 2023 seems to be inevitable. We are not optimistic about Weigao’s performance turnaround in 2024.
• After new policy strictly prohibiting borrowing to purchase medical equipment in public hospitals was released, the investment logic of medical device sector changes, which would negatively affect Weigao’s outlook.
• Weigao feels like “living off its past gains”.Current valuation is reasonable not undervalued. There’s no need to rush to long this stock when downward trend in share price hasn’t reversed.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

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