Daily Brief China: XPeng, Alibaba Group, Li Auto, Fu Shou Yuan, Tencent, Zoomlion Heavy Industry H and more

• We expect one change to the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) in March, though there is a possibility of a second change.
• The change in the index handling treatment for Secondary Listings and Dual Primary Listings will also result in some big float changes resulting in inflows to some stocks.
• If there are two changes to the index, estimated one-way turnover is 2.39% resulting in a one-way trade of HK$1,536m.

• After bouncing more than 60% from a near-all-time low, Alibaba Group (9988 HK)’s progress seems to have ended abruptly with the share-price holding flat for almost a month in December-2022.
• Meanwhile, the company’s cash cows, Taobao and Tmall are losing market share. Rapidly rising COVID infections create new headwinds that could affect business performance for at least two more quarters.
• With the shares trading near the top end of the new downward trend channel, we are short Alibaba as earnings are expected to miss consensus estimates in the next two-quarters.

• We expect at least one change to the Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH INDEX) in March – though there could be another change as well.
• Changes to the index handling for Dual Primary Listings should result in an increase in free float and passive inflows to Li Auto (2015 HK) and XPeng (9868 HK). 
• Estimated one-way turnover is 5.83% resulting in a one-way trade of HK$4.87bn and this is mainly driven by float and capping changes.

• China’s U-turn on COVID policy has led to skyrocketed infection cases/mortality. Demand for funeral services due to additional deaths would surge, so positive sentiment on Fu Shou Yuan could continue.
• Fu Shou Yuan’s performance is expected to rebound in 22H2 and 23H1 driven by high demand and relaxation of COVID-19 control measures. It’s a good short-term trade with strong catalyst.
• The acceleration and resonance of population aging trend, the new urbanization process and the increase of cremation rate of remains provide objective conditions for Fu Shou Yuan’s long-term upward performance.  

• Alibaba’s CEO will lead the cloud business himself, because the retailing business faces headwind.
• Tencent will enter the short video market again, because the online game is till stagnant.
• Douyin will launch a car-hailing platform, which will compete with Meituan.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Zoomlion Heavy Industry H