Daily Brief China: Xiaomi Corp, Sun Art Retail, Meituan, AP Moeller – Maersk A/S, Longfor Properties, Kunlun Energy, S.F. Holding, Beijing Health Guard Biotechnology, GL-Carlink Technology and more

• Xiaomi released healthy financial results inspite of the shrinking market.
• Alibaba Freshippo founder, Mr. Hou, retired from his role as the CEO of Freshippo.
• JD began to provide aftermarket service to BYD, the largest new energy vehicle producer.

• It’s time to revisit the network of Alibaba’s ( Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) ) affiliated listed companies for near term investment opportunities
• After investing in an ecosystem of online and offline companies over the last 10 years, Alibaba is rapidly restructuring its businesses to refocus on its most profitable opportunities
• Sun Art Retail (6808 HK) will benefit from the synergies of Baba’s restructuring

• Total revenue grew by 22.6% YoY in 4Q23, three percentage points higher than we expected.
• MT’s operating profit broke even for the fiscal year 2023.
• We conclude an upside of 113% and a price target of HK$188. Buy.

• Strong uptick in price momentum in February reflects booming spot market
• February container throughput growth in key regions also firm, up 7.4% Y/Y
• We suggest Short Evergreen vs Long Maersk (or ZIM) pair trade idea

Longfor Group’s FY 2023 results were acceptable in our view. The earnings decline was in line with expectations, driven by reduced revenue from the property development segment. The gross margin for property development was decent at 11%, relative to some distressed peers with negative to low single-digit gross margins. Recurring revenue from rentals and services rose by 6%, with recurring operating profit covering 1.4x of interest expense. Net debt declined marginally, supported by slightly positive FCF generation.

Liquidity was adequate, with Unrestricted Cash/ST Debt of 1.4x. We note positively that the company has been repaying some debt well in advance of maturity, possibly using cheaper and longer tenor loans backed against its commercial properties. We believe near-term default risk for Longfor is low, albeit its financial flexibility would gradually diminish as the company pledges more assets for funding.

• Kunlun Energy (135 HK)‘s 2.2% drop in core earnings in FY23 is distorted by the expiry of exploration rights of oilfield projects. All other segments have done well.  
• FY24 outlook is positive – reduction in E&P distortion, addition of more city gas projects, higher utilisation of LNG plants and terminals, and optimisation of gas pricing mechanism.
• Net cash of Rmb20.4bn equals 29% of market capitalisation, providing room for a higher dividend payout. A re-inclusion into the HSI is not totally out of the cards.

• Headline February numbers look pretty good — but they’re misleading
• On a combined basis, January-February data show ASPs still under pressure
• Recent results from ZTO and J&T Global have been unimpressive, in our view

• The real market space of China’s HPV vaccines is much smaller-than-expected. Investment logic of vaccine companies is different from biotech – They either become large vaccine enterprises or are eliminated.
• Low-Valent HPV vaccines would easily enter a price war or be included in National Immunization Program. 9-valent HPV vaccines would be the main battlefield, which is a highly competitive market.
• Health Guard is facing increasing survival risks. Based on the concerns about the commercialization outlook of HPV vaccines, we’re not sure if the Company would bring expected returns to investors.

Meituan has released FY 2023 numbers that were excellent in our view, with significantly improved profitability and solid cash generation. The financial risk profile has strengthened further, with a large and growing net cash position coupled with robust leverage and coverage ratios. Liquidity is sound. We expect FY 2024 to be a better year for the company.

We revise our Credit Bias on Meituan to “Positive” from “Stable”, given the material increase in profitability and strong cash-flow generation following the pandemic. That said, we do not expect ratings upgrades in the near future.

• GL-Carlink Technology (1818017D CH) is looking to raise >US$100m in its upcoming HK IPO. The deal will be run by CCBI.
• GL-Carlink (GLC) is a connected services provider for players within the automotive aftermarket industry in China, selling in-vehicle hardware products and the provision of SaaS marketing and management services.
• As per CIC, connected services refer to connecting vehicles with the Internet and providing comprehensive hardware products, software services, and value-added services for customers such as 4S stores.