Daily Brief China: Water Oasis, SHEIN, Guangzhou Automobile Group, Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial, BOE Technology Group , CanSino Biologics , Orient Overseas International, Sa Sa International Hldgs, Shanghai Shyndec Pharmaceutical and more

• Following the positive response to our article on Perfect Medical , we are keen to introduce our readers to another noteworthy company in the healthcare and beauty industry, Water Oasis.
• Despite initial appearances suggesting sluggish revenue growth over the past decade, a deeper examination reveals significant improvements in business quality and consistent shareholder returns through substantial dividends.
• This under-the-radar company, we believe, presents an attractive risk-reward profile.

• A week ahead of trial, a defendant in massive fraud case copped a plea
• Terms of deal include guilty plea, asset forfeiture, restitution of US$158 mn
• US investigation continues; are other Chinese companies involved in case?

• The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
• SOUTHBOUND’s consecutive buying streak ended on Monday 25-March, then started again. NORTHBOUND has started selling (but buying semi tech).
• Hs rebounded vs As. AH Premia still wide. Fabulous two-week performance by the Quiddity Portfolio (+2.09% over the two weeks) on a delta 3:1 long H/short A

• Baicha Baidao’s profit model doesn’t rely on tea drink sales, but on continuous expansion of store size.However, rapid expansion brought by the franchise model has led to significant management challenges.
• The profitability/market attractiveness of ChaPanda stores are declining, which not only reflects franchisees’ concerns about future profit prospects,but also reflects the market’s re-evaluation of the attractiveness of Baicha Baidao brand.
• Although current financial performance of Baicha Baidao seems acceptable, after IPO, its performance could decline year by year, leading to a collapse in stock price/valuation if this is the case.

• The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.
• Last week saw NORTHBOUND net SELL RMB 11.5bn of A-shares on low-ish volume. A-shares underperformed H-shares quite dramatically, giving back gains from two weeks ago.
• This week saw considerable net buying of semiconductor technology names. I expect that to continue.

• In 2023, CanSino Biologics (688185 CH) generated revenue of RMB561.7 million from the sales of meningococcal conjugate vaccines, up 266% YoY.
• This year, consensus is expecting CanSino to report revenue of RMB858 million, up whopping 140% YoY, mainly driven by meningococcal vaccines.
• CanSino is expected to add pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) vaccine in its revenue stream in 2025. The company’s PCV13i is a potential best-in-class improved PCV13.

• Orient Overseas International (316 HK) saw 27.2% QoQ freight rate uptick in 1Q24. This is a positive start and we should not be too concerned about the 12% YoY decline.
• Its overall load factor also expanded 0.9pp YoY in the quarter, and this is the first YoY improvement since 2Q22. A better utilisation level is good for unit costs.
• At end-FY23, net cash equals 62.4% of the share price, dragging ROE to 7.5% for the next three years. But with such solid financials, its 0.7x P/B is not expensive.

• Masked by a high base, 4Q FY24 sales of Sa Sa International Hldgs (178 HK) edged down by 4.1% YoY. However, sales for mainland China have increased by 18.2%.
• Overall sales for FY24 are in line with market projections and there is potential for further margin expansion. Its 6.7x and 5.9x PERs for FY25F and FY26F are inexpensive.
• The addition of more mainland cities to the Hong Kong individual visit scheme, promotion of Hong Kong tourism, and weaker USD in the medium term are all positive factors.

• China plans to issue ultra long-term special treasury bond (about RMB1 trillion) to promote large-scale medical equipment renewal, which is expected to boost domestic demand in medical device sector. 
• Various regions (e.g. Beijing, Hainan, Guangzhou, Zhuhai) have issued separate supporting policies for innovative drug industry. It may be too early to completely lose hope of Chinese innovative drugs.
• There is “horizontal competition” issue between Taiji and Shanghai Shyndec Pharmaceutical (600420 CH), which is the underlying logic for potential spin-offs and integrations within Taiji and China TCM before 2025.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Anton Oilfield
• Greentown China