In today’s briefing:
- China Rebalances at the Close Today- BIG Flows
- Tian Tu Capital Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Hampered by Weakened Market Sentiment. Guiding Weak FY22
- Buy Shenzhou on Margin Recovery
- Sunshine Insurance Group IPO: Trading Debut
- Growatt IPO: PHIP Update
- BOC HK – Negative Lending Growth, As Credit Costs Ratchet Higher?
- Morning Views Asia: China SCE, CIFI Holdings, Greentown China, Hopson Development, Sino-Ocean Service
- Pre-IPO Medbanks Network Technology – PHIP Updates: The Business Model Has yet to Be Verified
China Rebalances at the Close Today- BIG Flows
- There are multiple local China indices that rebalance at the close of trading today. Plus MSCI China and FTSE All-World/All-Cap flows due to changes to the Northbound StockConnect Buy-and-Sell list.
- China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co., (601601 CH) replaces Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway-A (601816 CH) in the FTSE China A50 Index (XIN9I INDEX).
- The round-trip turnover at the close of trading today should be in excess of US$8bn.
Tian Tu Capital Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Hampered by Weakened Market Sentiment. Guiding Weak FY22
- Tian Tu Capital (1390587D CH) is looking to raise US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
- Tiantu Capital (TTC) is a private equity/venture capital investor and fund manager with a focus on Chinese consumer brands and companies.
- The fund manages capital from investors including institutional investors, multinational corporations, financial institutions, and high net-worth individuals. It also directly invests through its own capital as well.
Buy Shenzhou on Margin Recovery
- Gross margin is under pressure throughout 2022 but will recover in 2023
- Brands have been focusing on destocking and the inventory levels trend down
- Capacity is expected to grow by 10% to low teens y/y in 2023
Sunshine Insurance Group IPO: Trading Debut
- Sunshine Insurance (6963 HK) priced its IPO at HK$5.83 per share to raise net proceeds of HK$6.4 billion (US$824 million). The shares will start trading tomorrow.
- We previously discussed the IPO in Sunshine Insurance Group IPO: The Bull Case, Sunshine Insurance Group IPO: The Bear Case and Sunshine Insurance Group IPO: Valuation Insights.
- Peers have modestly re-rated and the IPO price continues to imply a premium to the median peer CY2022 P/EV and P/B multiples. Therefore, the IPO price remains unattractive.
Growatt IPO: PHIP Update
- Growatt is a distributed energy solution provider with the #1 market share for PV inverters and energy storage inverters, allowing them strong potential to benefit from a growing market.
- In November 2022, the company received approval from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and the IPO has a placeholder value of US$1bn, making it HKEX’s fourth largest IPO of 2022.
- In this follow-up insight, we have highlighted and discussed some of the key new data points from the company’s latest Post Hearing Information Pack (PHIP).
BOC HK – Negative Lending Growth, As Credit Costs Ratchet Higher?
- Credit costs at present are only 20bps of loans, these can move to 100bps or higher
- Population data even before 2H22 shows contraction, with negative implications
- Property prices are turning down even faster, which is banks’ loan collateral
Morning Views Asia: China SCE, CIFI Holdings, Greentown China, Hopson Development, Sino-Ocean Service
Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.
Pre-IPO Medbanks Network Technology – PHIP Updates: The Business Model Has yet to Be Verified
- Specialty Pharmacy Business is the main revenue contributor,but it’s hard for Medbanks to achieve breakeven or turn loss into profits by relying on this business due to its low margin.
- Physician Research Assistance and Health Insurance Services have higher margin, but they have to face different challenges based on our analysis. They are hard to turn things around.
- In fact, Medbanks does not control the core resources or establish high barriers in front of competition. Whether its ecological story would finally work still needs time to verify.
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