Daily Brief China: Topsports International Holdings, Cainiao Smart Logistics, J&T Global Express, Beijing UBOX Online Technology, AAC Technologies Holdings, Water Oasis, Malo Medical Management, Luyuan Group and more

• Topsports International Holdin (6110 HK) is a pure-play on Nike and Adidas retail sales in China, as it is a leading retail partner of Nike and Adidas in China.
• Nike’s Greater China sales grew 12% yoy during the most recent quarter.  During the earnings call, Nike management was bullish on the prospects of the China business.
• The company currently trades at 13x forward PE, with a forward dividend yielf of 7%. 

• Cainiao Smart Logistics (1437124D HK) has filed an application proof to list on the HKEX (388 HK) and could raise US$1bn at a valuation between US$15bn-20bn.
• Cainiao Smart Logistics (1437124D HK) could get Fast Entry to the HSCI and be included in Southbound Stock Connect once the price stabilisation period is complete.
• Inclusion in other indices will take longer with the highest probability of index inclusion in June. Earlier inclusion will depend on the IPO timing, size and allocation to strategic/cornerstone investors.

• Global logistics and express delivery service provider J&T Express’ HKEx IPO application has been approved and this insight focuses on new data points from the PHIP filings.
• SEA segment’s GPM has further declined during 1H2023, however, gross losses of the other two segments have declined significantly resulting in GPM for the company.
• Our analysis suggests that with falling SEA margins, J&T Global Express (1936374D CH) may not be able to generate operating profits in the medium-term.

• Beijing UBOX Online Technology (1741985D CH) is looking to raise up to US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. 
• Beijing UBOX Online Technology (UBOX) is an unmanned retail operator (vending machine) in China.
• We had looked at its past performance earlier. In this note, we look at the updates from its recently filed PHIP. 

• In this insight we focus on J&T’s improved H123 performance in China and SE Asia
• How did the company achieve these gains? And do the improvements appear sustainable?
• We conclude with an updated estimate of J&T’s Enterprise Value: US$9.1 Bn

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• After going ex-dividend in June, Water Oasis (1161 HK) corrected and has remained rangebound at the 1.35-1.45 HKD/levels due to negative sentiment on HK/China.
• We expect FY23 results to be reported in late November/early December. We expect an increase of 19%/85%  in Revenue/PAT with a 16-cent dividend for FY23 (11.4% dividend yield).
• Stock trades at 7.6x/6.2x PE FY23e/24e, a dividend yield of 11.4%/14% FY23e/24e with 25% of the market capitalization in cash. 

• Malo’s revenue had good growth, but revenue scale is still small. At the current gross margin level, it would be difficult to generate decent profits considering the large SG&A expenses.
• Dental care expansion is difficult. Malo would face the challenging such as lack of high-quality dentists and centralized procurement. Both would drag down profits and cash flow.
• We are not optimistic about Malo’s share price performance after IPO. This industry’s profit mode is not mature. Most of chain dental services providers are still in cash-burning expansion stage.

• Luyuan Group, a pioneer in the e-bike industry in China, set terms for an upcoming IPO. The company offers ~106.7M shares at the expected price range of HK$6.00 to HK$8.00.
• The IPO price range implies a market cap of roughly HK$3B at the midpoint. Cornerstone investors have agreed to subscribe and purchase ~71% of the Offer Shares.
• Shares will begin trading on the HKSE next week. I believe the IPO will be priced at the low end of the range as e-bikes sales have slowed in Asia. 

• J&T Global Express, a global logistics service provider, is looking to raise about US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
• As per Frost & Sullivan (F&S), the firm is the leading express delivery business in Southeast Asia, with a 22.5% market share as per 2022 parcel volume.
• We have looked at the company’s past performance in our earlier notes. In this note we will look at its PHIP updates.