Daily Brief China: SHEIN, WuXi AppTec, 4Paradigm, Alibaba Group Holding , BYD, China Railway Signal & Communication, Ascentage Pharma Group Corp, Fangzhou, Iron Ore, China Vanke and more

• For first time since 2022, carriers’ cargo revenue, yield, load factor all rising
• Asia outbound, US inbound air cargo tons both improving in early 2024
• SHEIN, Temu could account for 40%+ of US inbound air tons from CH, HK, TW

• Due to increasing competition/price reduction/overcapacity issue, outlook of domestic vaccine companies isn’t optimistic, which has been reflected in 24Q1 results. However, there’s also a “special one” that deserves investors’ attention.
• The status of medical insurance funds is improving rather than deteriorating, but we’re currently in the first half of the decade with the highest pressure on medical insurance.
• As the H.R.8333 proposal faced obstacles in the process of being included in NDAA, WuXi AppTec/WuXi Bio’s shares once rebounded.We remain conservative as situation is not as simple as imagined.

• 4Paradigm, China’s AI software company with focus on enterprise-level solutions, performed well and achieved solid growth in 2023 and Q1 2024. 
• In my insight, I discuss valuation framework for comparable company analysis and set a new 12-month PT for 4Paradigm.
• The company’s management has set a clear goal of profitability. I like 4Paradigm’s leadership position and hyper-growth in revenue from the Sage AI Platform.

• Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
• On the IPO front, we continued to look at Shift Up (462870 KS),  Guzman Y Gomez and Webtoon Entertainment (WBTN US), along with Mao Geping Cosmetics. 
• On the placement front, there were quite a few deals in India, while Atour Lifestyle Holdings (ATAT US) was the major Asia linked offerings.

• European Commission will impose provisional tariffs on imported Chinese battery electric vehicles.
• Zeekr’s deliveries increased by 117% YoY in 1Q24 and by 112% YoY in the first five months of 2024.
• Ant Group will pay RMB1 billion to sponsor content creators on AliPay.

• China Railway Signal & Communication (3969 HK)‘s latest order backlog is estimated to be Rmb173.7bn, enough to cover FY24F revenue by 4.4x.
• Gross margin has sustained expansion, reaching a record high of 27.8% in 1Q24. Higher R&D expenses will benefit its medium-term earnings.
• Net cash equals 59% of the share price, allowing it to maintain over 50% payout and potentially higher going forward. Operating cash flow has also turned around to positive.

• Ascentage was originally in an extremely difficult situation, but the cooperation with Takeda turned things around. Ascentage has obtained urgently needed cash flow to solve the survival problem.
• At this stage, it’s possible for Ascentage to hit about 50% market value of HCM.  Investors are interested to know if APG-2575 would also be out-licensed, which however is not easy.
• Ascentage’s current strength isn’t sufficient to self-build sales system. While this deal is a good start, if Ascentage still chooses to do commercialization on its own, it’s time to sell. 

• Fangzhou cannot get around the decreasing unit-price of drugs and the increasing role of medical insurance in chronic-disease treatment.It’s challenging to find patients willing to pay out of own pockets.
• The internal dispute between the Founder and shareholders hasn’t ended, and related litigation is still pending. This makes us concerned about the stability of future business development and corporate governance. 
• Fangzhou has significant cash flow pressure. In the case of increasingly fierce competition in the industry, without successful business diversification/transformation, growth prospects is gloomy, Valuation should be lower than peers. 

• SGX Iron Ore prices exhibit seasonality. For select six months being long Iron Ore combined with short positions during other months deliver positive P&L based on back tests. 
• In line with prices, realised volatility exhibits seasonality too. Options strategies can exploit this to deliver superior alpha & higher sharpe ratio.
• Averages confound extreme variances. Monthly iron ore futures price returns are less volatile during the months of December, February, June, October, & March based on range.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Bharti Airtel
• China Vanke
• Nickel Industries