In today’s briefing:
- Henlius (2696 HK): Circ Out. 22nd Jan H-Class Meeting
- EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly December 16 – 20
- VCredit (2003 HK): Ma Does Makes His Move. But Nothing To Shout About
- Goldlion Holdings (533 HK): Chairman’s Scheme Privatisation Is a Done Deal
- China Consumption Weekly (16 Dec 2024): Alibaba, Meituan, Mixue, Green Tea
- GA Pack (468 HK): The State of Play
- GAPack (468 HK): XJF’s Offer Now Open
- CanSino Biologics (6185.HK/688185.CH) – From 2025 Onwards, Cansino Will Bring Decent Returns
Henlius (2696 HK): Circ Out. 22nd Jan H-Class Meeting
- After Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) secured NDRC approval on the 22nd Nov; fulfilled pre-cons on the 16th December, the Circular was dispatched last night, the 22nd December.
- The EGM/H-share class meeting will take place on the 22nd January, one day past my estimate. Settlement should be on ore around the 18th Feb, a week beyond my estimate.
- Trading at a gross/annualised spread off 2.9%/20.3%. Still attractive here.
EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly December 16 – 20
- Communication Services had 39% of single stock option volumes vs only 22% of the open interest highlighting short expiry / speculative nature of trading.
- Tencent and Baidu heading in opposite directions – Baidu vol on the inexpensive side vs Tencent vol.
- Xiaomi one of only 2 optionable names trading at 52-week high (Sunny optical being the other).
VCredit (2003 HK): Ma Does Makes His Move. But Nothing To Shout About
- When VCredit Holdings (2003 HK), a provider of consumer financial services in China, was suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code, I expected an Offer from Ma Ting Hung, VCredit’s chairman.
- Well, we do have an Offer. Ma acquired 4.19% via two SPAs, lifting his stake to 44.04%. Stephen Liu (an ED) also acquired 1.43% via an SPA.
- As Ma, Liu, and other parties, are presumed to be acting in concert, an unconditional MGO is triggered. But at HK$1.80/share, a 9.09% discount to undisturbed.
Goldlion Holdings (533 HK): Chairman’s Scheme Privatisation Is a Done Deal
- On 17 December, Goldlion Holdings (533 HK) announced a scheme offer from Mr Tsang (Chairman/CEO) at HK$1.5232 per share, a 71.1% premium to the undisturbed price of HK$0.89 (20 November).
- The key condition is the scheme approved by at least 75% disinterested shareholders (<10% disinterested shareholders rejection). The shareholder with a blocking stake is a seller.
- The offer is reasonable compared to peer multiples and historical trading ranges. At the last close and for a late April payment, the gross/annualised spread is 7.3%/22.7%.
China Consumption Weekly (16 Dec 2024): Alibaba, Meituan, Mixue, Green Tea
- Alibaba sells 100% equities in Intime Department Store to Youngor.
- Meituan plans to shorten delivery workers’ work hours due to sudden death cases.
- Mixue, the lowest price fresh drink provider, began to raise its prices.
GA Pack (468 HK): The State of Play
- On 20 December, Shandong Xinjufeng Technology Packaging (301296 CH) satisfied the precondition for its Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK) offer. The offer document will be despatched by 27 December.
- Analysing the EGM vote on 18 October suggests that the 50% minimum acceptance condition will be met if no competing management offer is made.
- Management will oppose the offer, but the last EGM protest votes suggest that many minorities will ignore management. At the last close, the gross/annualised spread was 2.3%/25.3%.
GAPack (468 HK): XJF’s Offer Now Open
- On Friday, the 20th December, GAPack (468 HK) announced that Shandong Xinjufeng Technology (301296 CH) (XJF) had satisfied all pre-conditions.
- The Offer Document has now been dispatched, and the Offer is now open for tendering. The First Close is the 21st January.
- This Doc is largely a nothing burger. The Response Document, which will include the IFA, is required to be dispatched on or before the 7 January 2025.
CanSino Biologics (6185.HK/688185.CH) – From 2025 Onwards, Cansino Will Bring Decent Returns
- 2024 is the year when CanSino achieves a fundamental reversal. Based on the current sales performance of meningococcal vaccines, 2024 full-year revenue is expected to reach about RMB840 million.
- Under normal circumstances, PCV13i is expected to be approved in Q1-Q2 next year. If everything goes smoothly, PCV13i would be approved at the beginning of next year at the earliest.
- Market value of RMB8-10 billion is reasonable range for CanSino. If a new virus causes a pandemic in the future, this will be a powerful catalyst for stock price.
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