Daily Brief China: MMG, Swire Properties, Cathay Pacific Airways, YSB, Guangzhou Automobile Group, Acotec Scientific Holdings, Greentown China and more

• On 4 June, MMG (1208 HK) announced plans to raise HK$9.1bn (US$1.2bn) through 2 rights shares for every five existing shares rights offering, with a rights price of HK$2.62.
• Since the rights issue announcement, MMG shares have declined by 16.2% to the undisturbed price and by 8.0% compared to the TERP of HK$3.48 per share. 
• MMG’s trading pattern has diverged from Link REIT/Yuexiu’s rights trading due to the statement on 18 May that the Peruvian mine is not liable for a 30% withholding tax.

• The steady selloff in Swire Properties (1972 HK) could result in the stock being deleted from global passive portfolios in the next couple of months.
• Swire Properties (1972 HK) trades marginally cheaper than its similar sized peers on forward PE and price to book value.
• Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK) owns 82% of Swire Properties (1972 HK) and a big drop in the stock price could see them step in.

• With more foreign countries being granted visa-free visits to China, Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK) will benefit from more transfer traffic via Hong Kong.
• Recovery is decent with passenger traffic rising 37.5% in 5M24. CX’s capacity already returned to 80% of pre-pandemic in 2Q24, and this will reach 100% in 1Q25. 
• YTD, CX is still a laggard relative to many global airlines. Its P/B valuation is not stretched at 0.8x, given ROE of 11% over the next 3 years.  

• Retail pharmacies experienced performance decline in April and May. Due to negative policies, retail pharmacies will experience industry clearance. Therefore, we do not recommend investors to bottom-fish related stocks now.
• There is a logic to biotech’s performance from 2023 to present.The clearer the path of sustainable development, the better the stock price performance. They can be divided into three types.
• YSB faces big risks and the outlook is not optimistic. If the final valuation of the Company is lower than China Resources Pharmaceutical and Shanghai Pharmaceuticals, we wouldn’t be too surprised.

• Kuaishou and Bilibili’s GMV surged YoY during “June 18” sales.
• World of Warcraft: Wrath of the Lich King, will formally start on June 27.
• GAC Honda Automobile Ltd planned to dismiss 1700 employees, about 14% of total.

• Acotec’s 2023 performance was unsatisfactory. Core products suffered weak growth. Positive trend of continuing to optimize revenue structure was broken. Sales of latecomers’ competing products would expand rapidly in 2024/2025. 
• Revenue proportion in overseas markets was still below 5% in 2023. If no highlights in Acotec’s cooperation with Boston Scientific in 2024, this collaboration could be considered a failure.
• Due to VBP, margin could further decline. If it’s just the current situation, then Acotec is not as good as Zylox-Tonbridge. So, its valuation should also be lower than Zylox-Tonbridge.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Greentown China