In today’s briefing:
- [Miniso Group (MNSO US）]: Strong Offline Traffic Bodes Well for C1Q23 Growth
- [Atour Lifestyle (ATAT US, BUY, TP US$34) Target Price Change]: A Steady Expanding Year in 2023
- [Nayuki Holding (2150 HK) Target Price Change]: Business Model Change Has Risky Consequence
[Miniso Group (MNSO US）]: Strong Offline Traffic Bodes Well for C1Q23 Growth
- We expect Miniso to report C1Q23 revenue, operating profit, and net income 3.6%, 18.3% and 16.7% higher than consensus.
- We think the strong foot traffic to offline stores post CNY bodes well for Miniso’s domestic store sales in 2023;
- We maintain the Buy rating, and raise TP by US$1 to US$25 to factor in the sales recovery from higher foot traffic and ARPU.
[Atour Lifestyle (ATAT US, BUY, TP US$34) Target Price Change]: A Steady Expanding Year in 2023
- Atour reported its 4Q22 revenue/non-GAAP operating profit/non-GAAP net income 8.0%/78.3%/114.6% higher than our estimate.
- We adjust Atour’s hotel expansion estimate from 2.4k to 1.9k until 2025 due to its low appetite in expanding midscale segment.
- We raise our 2023 earnings estimate due to better operating efficiency, but trimmed its hotel network expanding pace in 2023-2025, leading to TP cut by US$2.5 to US$34.
[Nayuki Holding (2150 HK) Target Price Change]: Business Model Change Has Risky Consequence
- Nayuki reported C2H22 top line 0.9% below our estimate but 18% below consensus，due to deteriorating cost ratios;
- Company chose to drastically expand store count by ~600 in 2023. Our concern is that Nayuki stores now are drastically different from its past.
- The company is abandoning its premium teahouse position, which begets unknown consequences in our opinion; We keep the TP unchanged at HK 3.1 and maintain SELL.
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