Daily Brief China: Jiangsu Cnano Technology Co Ltd-A, Alibaba (ADR), Country Garden Holdings Co, China Jinmao Holdings and more

• The review period for the June rebalance ends 30 April. We expect the changes to be announced 26 May with the implementation taking place after the close on 9 June.
• We expect the index committee to continue using a 6-month minimum listing history resulting in two changes to the index.
• One way turnover is estimated at 1.6% resulting in a one-way trade of CNY 1,442m. The impact on the deletions will be larger than that on the inclusions.

• Based on our recent checks, we expect that Tmall sales in the march promo were weaker-than-expected, especially in apparel and beauty make-up. 
• Meanwhile, we maintain our prior forecast for Douyin’s overall eCommerce growth, and we expect that Douyin Mall’s share of Douyin eCommerce GMV is now higher than we previously estimated.
• We cut the GMV growth of Taobao and Tmall from 4.4% YoY to 1.4% YoY in FY24, and cut BABA’s TP to US$ 100, implying 12.6x FY23 PE.

• As a background, can I refer the reader to Substack Note No One Cares 有中国特色 Real Estate Liquidity Spiral to Solvency Challenge 31st October 2022 ?
• It bottoms ticked recovery in the highly leveraged Real estate Index Hang Seng Mainland Property Index (HSPMI) and rallied 103% from trough to peak 27th January 2023.
• The mainland listed Index CSI 300 Real estate (CSI300RE) trough (1^st November) to peak (27^th November) was 43.5%.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• China Jinmao Holdings
• Road King Infrastructure
• Sunny Optical
• Vedanta Resources
• Yanlord Land