Daily Brief China: JD.com Inc., JF Wealth Holdings, Baidu, Alibaba (ADR), ABM Investama, Bilibili Inc, Bilibili, Shandong Weigao Group Medical Polymer Co, Zai Lab Ltd, Fosun International and more

• We believe the revenue growth rate would still be low at 8.5% YoY in 4Q22, even lower than 11.4% YoY in 3Q22.
• However, we believe the growth rate of total revenue will be 10% in 2022, 15% in 2023, and 18% in 2024.
• We believe the stock has an upside of 47% for year end 2023.

• JF Wealth Holdings (9636 HK) is looking to raise US$143m in its Hong Kong IPO.
• JF Wealth (JFW) is an online investment decision-making solution provider in China, focusing on the online investor content services market. 
• In this note, we discuss our earnings estimates, and thoughts on valuation.

• Baidu managed to deliver an all-around in the last quarter beat despite the fact that its financial performance was impacted by a challenging environment because of a rapid rise in COVID-19 cases as well as its impact on the broader economy.
• Both feeds distributed through the Baidu app and mobile search queries continued experiencing double-digit growth in the quarter.
• Baidu is expected to launch Ernie Bot, its new conversational AI bot, powered by its latest in-house large language models, to counter ChatGPT.

• Alibaba managed to deliver an all-around beat despite experiencing significant challenges because of the rapid change in the Covid situation.
• The company delivered double-digit growth in its free cash flow and adjusted EBITA through operating efficiency and cost optimization.
• The strong net cash position of Alibaba is supported by its healthy cash flow generation.

The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors’ understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.

• BILI’s 4Q results missed expectations across key metrics from revenue and MAU growth to guidance for 2023
• The results suggest fast growth will not return in 2023 and an uncertain road to breakeven by 2024.
• Reiterate our bearish view on the stock and see further downside risks ahead.

• The fourth quarter looks like a weak quarter according to the growth and the loss.
• However, deducting the termination cost for game studios, we believe the financials will be promising in 2023.
• We believe the stock has an upside of 19% for the yearend 2023.

• Weigao formed a diversified product lines through a series of acquisitions and capital operation. Its performance is more driven by sales not R&D, with limited core competitiveness.
• Weigao’s orthopaedic products business is under pressure due to VBP, which would drag down the overall gross margin. The acquisition of Weigao New Life is hard to turn things around.
• Weigao is a holding platform, which is worthless in secondary market.There could be some temporary rebounds but share price could still underperform or its valuation is lower than comparable companies.

• ZaiLab reported C4Q22 top line 3% above our estimate. Operating profit was worse than our estimate and consensus while net income was better mainly due to government grant; 
• We maintain ZLAB’s business model is inherently flawed because each blockbuster drug it signed needs comprehensive sales support.
• As a result, ZLAB’s pipeline needs to be heavily discounted; We maintain our SELL and cut TP from US$30 to US$25.

• We revise our recommendations for FOSUNI 6.75% Jul 2023, FOSUNI 5.5% Aug 2023, FOSUNI 6.85% Jul 2024 to Hold from Sell. FOSUNI 5.95% Oct 2025 and FOSUNI 5.05% Jan 2027 remain on Hold recommendations and Credit Direction remains Negative. 
• The new RMB12b credit line provides some liquidity relief and improves the likelihood of Fosun’s ability to meet its debt obligations in 2023.
• However, more offshore asset disposals or pledges for loans need to be done to cover the remaining offshore bond maturities during the year.