Daily Brief China: Horizon Robotics, Beijing Capital Grand, China Resources Beverage, Seazen (Formerly Future Land) and more

• Horizon Robotics (9660 HK), a provider of autonomous driving products and services, is seeking to raise up to US$696 million through a HKEx IPO.    
• Horizon ranked fourth among all global ADAS and AD solution providers in China by solution installation volume in 2023 and 1H24, with a market share of 9.3% and 15.4%, respectively.
• The bull case rests on a large TAM, a blue-chip customer base, a robust backlog, a core business in good health, a high gross margin, and a strong balance sheet.

• Beijing Capital Grand (1329 HK) (BCG), a commercial property developer in China, is currently suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code. 
• Beijing Capital Land Ltd H (2868 HK) (BCL) holds a 65.72% stake, having secured majority control in Juda International, as BCG was then known, in November 2013. 
• BCG has been a forgettable stock since 4Q16. Expect a forthcoming Scheme from BCL, perhaps at ~HK$0.75/share.

• China Resources Beverage (2460 HK)  plans to raise  US$650m at the upper end of the indicative IPO price range at a market capitalisation and EV of HK$34bn and HK$27bn respectively.
• Though the company has a strong business model and fundamentals, the packaged drinking water market is intensely competitive creating a price war and dragging down growth rates.
• CR Beverage is less diversified and has inferior margins compared to Nongfu Spring (9633 HK) , hence priced at a deep discount to its peer, making the IPO pricing attractive.

• Horizon Robotics, a Beijing-based fast-growing provider of integrated ADAS and AD solutions for passenger vehicles, plans to raise ~$700M at the high end of the range at HK$3.99/share.
• The IPO is expected to be between HK$3.73 and HK$3.99. However, the offer price may be, but is not expected to be, lower than the lower end of the range.
• I believe that at the high end of the range, the company’s valuation is full, and I would await a share pull-back before becoming more positive on the stock.

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• Vedanta Resources

• Beijing Capital Grand (1329 HK) entered a trading halt based on the Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers. 
• It is likely that Beijing Capital Land Ltd H (2868 HK), the largest shareholder, is launching an offer primarily to acquire the stake from Sino-Ocean Group (3377 HK) receivers. 
• As this is a forced sale, an offer of around HK$0.70-0.75, a 20%- 30% premium to the last close, would be sufficient to gain an irrevocable from the receivers.