In today’s briefing:
- HKBN (1310 HK): Just How Likely Is An I Squared Offer?
- GAPack (468 HK): No Further Progress On Co-Founder’s Offer. That’s Good For XJF
- 2025 High Conviction: Short NIO (NIO US/9866 HK)
HKBN (1310 HK): Just How Likely Is An I Squared Offer?
- Two hours before China Mobile’s pre-conditional voluntary Offer announcement on the 2 December, HKBN Ltd (1310 HK) flagged a possible separate Offer from I Squared Asia-backed HGC Global Communication (HGC).
- No price was mentioned, although HKBN and I Squared “are in discussions on the terms of the proposal (including the price).” The media is reporting a HK$5-HK$6/share price range.
- Apart from anti-competition concerns via a HKBN/HGC tie-in; would HGC even get approval from the powers that be to proceed with a merger?
GAPack (468 HK): No Further Progress On Co-Founder’s Offer. That’s Good For XJF
- In Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK) (GAPack)’s monthly update, there is no update.
- No further progress on the management Offer. Four months and counting. In the meantime, Shandong Xinjufeng Technology (301296 CH) (XJF) secured SAMR approval; and the appointment of two friendly directors.
- IF (and when) XJF’s Offer becomes open to acceptance and the IFA is supportive, management should back the Offer if their own Offer is unlikely to materialise.
2025 High Conviction: Short NIO (NIO US/9866 HK)
- NIO (NIO US) is a Chinese premium electric vehicle manufacturer listed across three exchanges.
- NIO will likely struggle to reignite its growth with its three-brand strategy in a fiercely competitive market. Its promise to reach breakeven in 2026 is likely to be broken.
- NIO’s valuation is stretched as it trades at a material premium to median Chinese EV peers’ EV/Sales and growth-adjusted EV/Sales multiples.
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