Daily Brief China: CPMC Holdings, Sciclone Pharmaceuticals, Citic Securities (A), Hywin Holdings, ByteDance, China Jinmao Holdings and more

• On the 6th Dec 2023, packaging play CPMC Holdings (906 HK) announced a pre-conditional Offer from SASAC and the National Council for Social Security Fund of China (NCSSF). 
• A decent premium (32.1%), presumed rubber-stamped regulatory approvals, and a 50% acceptance condition with 29.7% in the bag – this Offer looked done. Then ORG announced a possible competing proposal.
• Nearly four months have elapsed and details on ORG’s Offer remain unknown. SASAC/NCSSF chip away at reg approvals. Shares are down 2.6% from its recent peak. That makes sense.

• Sciclone Pharmaceuticals (6600 HK) disclosed a scheme privatisation offer from GL Capital at HK$18.80 per share, a 33.9% premium to the undisturbed price (HK$14.04 on 15 March).
• The key condition is approval by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders (<10% of all disinterested shareholders rejection). The Bank of China, which holds a blocking stake, should be supportive.
• The offer price has been declared final. It is reasonable, aligning with the all-time high and the IPO price. This is a done deal.

• Citic Securities, China’s leading brokerage, has shifted over 100 investment bankers from initial public offering (IPO) roles to other divisions, in a major overhaul to address slowing business amid the stock market downturn.
• Most of the employees affected were transferred to debt financing business while the rest were relocated to mergers and acquisitions, and investment departments, a person close to the matter said.
• “The adjustment is an internal optimization of personnel, involving a broad range of investment banking positions,” said the person.

• Hywin [NASDAQ:  HYW] announced a broad business transformation plan in response to overall market and regulatory conditions in China.
• The stock price, under considerable pressure since November last year, has clearly anticipated some of this uncertainty.
• As part of its transformation, Hywin will shift is wealth management product distribution away from asset-backed products.

• The looming threat of a business ban on TikTok in the United States is driving millions of users and advertisers to seek alternatives to the popular short video platform, presenting a significant opportunity for rivals such as YouTube and Meta.

• Data released by Sensor Tower in March indicates that, over the past 90 days, nearly 94% of TikTok users in the U.S. have begun using Alphabet’s YouTube.

• Additionally, 80% of TikTok users have shifted their attention to Instagram, 68% to Facebook, and 55% to Snapchat.

China Jinmao has released FY 2023 numbers that were weak in our view, as the company reported a lower top line and reduced margins. However, the earnings decline was in line with expectations, as it reflected industry trends and the company had issued a profit warning in March 2024.

Negatively, leverage further deteriorated to a very weak level. In addition, we are concerned about whether Jinmao would be able to maintain access to domestic bond markets. This is as the company has seemingly stopped issuing domestic notes since July 2023. Instead, it issued perpetual bonds to immediate parent Sinochem HK in December. Going forward, Jinmao may have to increase its reliance on Sinochem for financing.