Daily Brief China: China Traditional Chinese Medicine, APT Medical , A8 New Media, Shandong Weigao Group Medical Polymer Co, Cambricon Technologies Lt, Lonking Holdings, Alibaba Group Holding , Prosus NV, Shanghai Pharmaceuticals Holding, Shimao Property Holdings and more

• We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
• Highest spreads: Yichang HEC Changjiang Pharma (1558 HK), China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK), Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK), Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK), Asia Cement China (743 HK). 
• Lowest spreads: Fancl Corp (4921 JP), Mimasu Semiconductor Industry (8155 JP), Infocom Corp (4348 JP), L’Occitane (973 HK), Qantm Intellectual Property (QIP AU), Alps Logistics (9055 JP). 

• There are only 3 trading days left in the review period for the September rebalance of the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX). 
• We see two potential changes that could result in a one-way turnover of 3.6% and in a one-way trade of CNY 4.7bn (US$644m).
• Cumulative excess volume has started to pick up in the stocks over the last few weeks and that could be an indicator of further gains for a long/short trade.

• Back on the 12th June, PRC property rental play A8 New Media (800 HK)  announced an Offer by way of a Scheme from chairman/founder/major shareholder Liu Xiaosong.
• The Cancellation price was $0.36/share, a punchy 162.77% to last close. The price was declared  final.
• The Scheme Doc is now out, with an independent shareholder vote on the 23 August and payment on or around the 2nd October. This is a done deal.

• We noticed some positive updates about Ascentage as competitors’ products have encountered varying degrees of challenges. However, the top priority for Ascentage is to get the approval of APG-2575 first.
• China Resources Boya has agreed to buy Green Cross for RMB1.82 billion, with premium of 160%.We think this is the right strategy considering the high barriers in blood products industry. 
• Weigao’s performance was negatively affected by VBP and anti-corruption campaign. The unsatisfactory share price performance is closely related to its business model. 2x P/S is reasonable for Weigao.

• The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.
• Last week saw NORTHBOUND net SELL RMB 11.4bn of A-shares. NORTHBOUND sold everything. Seemed somewhat cap-weighted. Not a pretty flow picture. 
• A-Shares sharply underperformed HK indices, but AH spreads didn’t recover the prior week’s disaster. That said, there WAS dip-buying this week on the worst hit, which is unusual recently.

• Lonking Holdings (3339 HK)‘s positive profit alert for 33-50% YoY increase in 1H24 earnings suggests that market consensus of just 10% full-year growth is way too conservative.  
• Industry sales momentum for excavators and wheel loaders has accelerated in the last three months. A low base in 2H24 will mean an even stronger recovery.
• Government supportive measures for equipment renewal and faster special purpose bond issuance will fuel demand too. We estimate net cash equals 90% of the share price. 

• Xiaomi’s shipments increased by double digits, but Apple’s shipments decreased in China in 2Q24.
• Alibaba’s Taobao and Tmall platforms have waived the AliPay fee for retailers.
• Amazon will open a store on JD.com next Black Friday.

• Prosus has become more shareholder-friendly and responsive, driven by management remuneration incentives
• The drop in discount from 2022 to 2023 was influenced by these incentives, but the lack of their extension for 2024 has led to an increase in the discount to over 40%
• Investors have an asymmetrical opportunity to benefit from Prosus’ discounted value, especially with its valuable stake in Tencent

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• Due to the low base in 2023, net profit in 2024 would show restorative growth, with net profit attributable to owners of the company reaching RMB5+ billion, up 33% YoY.
• Different from Sinopharm/CRP whose assets are scattered in different listed companies, pharmaceutical assets/resources of SH Pharma are integrated within the Company, so the intrinsic value of this model is greater.
• SH Pharma is undervalued. Interim dividend will be added in 2024.Future dividend ratio would remain 30+%.SH Pharma as a SOE takes the lead in responding to policies to increase dividends.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• SK Hynix