In today’s briefing:
- Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 9 Feb 2024): Decent Net Momo Buying, Especially in Financials
- A/H Premium Tracker (To 9 Feb 2024): Liquid AH Premia Near Multi-Yr Wides, Narrow AH Premia Wider
- Quiddity HSTECH Mar 24 Flow Expectations: US$415mn One-Way if the Low-Conviction Change Takes Place
- HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 9 Feb 2024); Net Tech Selling STILL, Net SOE Buying, STILL
- Quiddity HSCEI Mar 24 Flow Expectations: Zhongsheng (881 HK) Downtrend Could Continue
- Dramatic Growth of SHEIN & Temu Having Noticeable Impact On Segments Outside Of US Retail
- China Healthcare Weekly (Feb.12) – New Pricing Mechanism for Drugs, China Biotech M&A, Medicilon
Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 9 Feb 2024): Decent Net Momo Buying, Especially in Financials
- The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.
- Last week saw NORTHBOUND net BUY RMB 16.1bn of A-shares on VERY strong average activity after +9.9bn and +12.1bn RMB the two weeks before. Some National Team buying this week.
- Renewables selling was tempered. Finance and Industry saw large net buying. Five of the top ten buys among liquid NORTHBOUND stocks were finance. Info Tech saw net selling. Again.
A/H Premium Tracker (To 9 Feb 2024): Liquid AH Premia Near Multi-Yr Wides, Narrow AH Premia Wider
- The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
- SOUTHBOUND and NORTHBOUND flows net positive. AH premia on average rose so Hs underperformed As by 1.75%. Narrow premia pairs saw AH premia rise most.
- Watch the SOE stock price KPI space. Wouldn’t be short SOEs vs Privates on H/A basis. Low-hanging fruit with some SOEs having large cash balances.
Quiddity HSTECH Mar 24 Flow Expectations: US$415mn One-Way if the Low-Conviction Change Takes Place
- The HSTECH Index tracks the performance of the top 30 technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes.
- The index changes for HSTECH index for the March 2024 index rebal event will be announced on 16th February 2024.
- In this insight, we take a final look at the expected index changes and our latest flow expectations.
HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 9 Feb 2024); Net Tech Selling STILL, Net SOE Buying, STILL
- A bad week for HK and Chinese shares. National Team buying seems lighter into the waning days of the Year of the Rabbit.
- Net SOUTHBOUND buying was HK$4.0bn in the shortened pre-holiday week.
- Remarkable this past week, again, was the tendency to net sell names which were down hard, and net buy names which have been performing well.
Quiddity HSCEI Mar 24 Flow Expectations: Zhongsheng (881 HK) Downtrend Could Continue
- The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 “Mainland China” securities listed in Hong Kong.
- The index changes for HSCEI index for the March 2024 index rebal event will be announced on 16th February 2024.
- In this insight, I have shown how my flow expectations have changed since I published my last HSCEI insight on 6th December 2023.
Dramatic Growth of SHEIN & Temu Having Noticeable Impact On Segments Outside Of US Retail
- The effects of SHEIN’s and Temu’s growth on US retail are already well known
- But recent data points show the companies impacting other industries, too
- Through their dramatic growth the two companies are gaining influence in US
China Healthcare Weekly (Feb.12) – New Pricing Mechanism for Drugs, China Biotech M&A, Medicilon
- NHSA’s new regulation on establishing a mechanism for pricing newly listed chemical drugs and encouraging high-quality innovation attracted widespread attention. However, it’s difficult to interpret this as an optimistic rule.
- Although we see increasing interest in products from Chinese pharmaceutical companies, it would be difficult for Chinese biotech to be acquired on a large scale in the foreseeable future.
- Based on 2023 results, Medicilon has entered a vicious circle. Multiple sell-offs made us question the moral standards of management. The risk is high for this type of small/lower-tier CXO.
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