Daily Brief China: Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway-A, HKBN Ltd, BeiGene Ltd, Hopson Development and more

• HKEX (388 HK) has announced that the expansion of Northbound Stock Connect eligible stocks will take effect from the start of trading on 13 March.
• 598 stocks listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and 436 stocks listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange will be added to Northbound Stock Connect.
• Currently, we see 43 stocks being added to the MSCI China Index in May (inflows of US$1.42bn), further increasing China’s weight in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. 

• We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
• Highest spreads  21Vianet Group (VNET US),Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ AU), 111 Inc (YI US), Toyo Construction (1890 JP), Origin Energy (ORG AU), HKBN Ltd (1310 HK),  Jiangnan (1366 HK)
• Lowest spreads – Ihara Science (5999 JP), Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU), GK Goh Holdings (GKG SP), Boustead Projects (BOCJ SP), Techno Associe (8249 JP), Nissin Electric (6641 JP).

• It’s unrealistic to turn losses into profits by relying on BRUKINSA alone. BeiGene needs to have three blockbuster products with US$1 billion sales, which is difficult considering current pipeline situation. 
• If investors are optimistic about BeiGene, to some extent, they are betting on the success of BeiGene’s model, but of course, they should also bear the corresponding risks and costs. 
• BeiGene is overvalued, and its current market value has already priced in all positive factors. In this position, we think the risks far outweigh the benefits, because miracles don’t always happen.   

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Adaro Energy
• China Vanke
• Hopson Development