In today’s briefing:
- Quiddity HSCEI Sep 23 Flow Expectations Update: US$367mn One-Way, Beigene Vs Peers Interesting
- Quiddity HSTECH Sep 23 Flow Expectations Update: Last Trade Sucessful; Some New Trade Ideas
- Tencent: Online Games Continue to Recover in 2Q2023E
- Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Mainstream ASPs Down 10% in June | J&T IPO Impact? | (July 2023)
- Lalatech IPO Valuation Analysis: Discount To Last Round Valuation Is Justified
Quiddity HSCEI Sep 23 Flow Expectations Update: US$367mn One-Way, Beigene Vs Peers Interesting
- In three more weeks, the index changes and the indicative capping changes for the September 2023 rebalance will be officially announced.
- We first looked at the potential HSCEI index changes and the resultant capping flows for September 2023 in Quiddity HSCEI Sep 23 Flow Expectations: Two Changes Likely, US$276mn One-Way
- In this insight, we take a look at Quiddity’s updated flow expectations which account for the changes in prices in the last ~1.5 months.
Quiddity HSTECH Sep 23 Flow Expectations Update: Last Trade Sucessful; Some New Trade Ideas
- In Quiddity HSTECH Sep 23 Flow Expectations: Two ADDs/DELs Possible, I discussed my initial flow expectations and potential index changes for the September 2023 Rebalance.
- The suggested (previous insight) SHORT Ping An Healthcare and Technol (1833 HK) is down 10.6% vs the hedge JD Health International (6618 HK) in ~1.5 months.
- In this insight, I have presented my updated flow expectations and some new trade ideas for the next few weeks.
Tencent: Online Games Continue to Recover in 2Q2023E
- Tencent (700 HK) ’s online games business grew for the first time in 1Q2023 (+10.8% YoY) after four consecutive quarters of YoY decline followed by regulatory hurdles.
- Our app data analysis reveals that online games revenue would grow by about 12% YoY in 2Q2023E driven by increases in both domestic and international games revenues.
- On Monday, it was also reported that Tencent is in the process of acquiring a majority stake in Polish gaming studio Techland, expanding the long list of overseas gaming acquisitions.
Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Mainstream ASPs Down 10% in June | J&T IPO Impact? | (July 2023)
- In June, mainstream parcel pricing declined by over 10% Y/Y, but SF Holding saw ASPs rise
- We believe J&T Global Express’ planned IPO could negatively impact the industry in H2
- Pricing pressure has increased, in our view, and we expect margins to decline in H2 23
Lalatech IPO Valuation Analysis: Discount To Last Round Valuation Is Justified
- Lalatech Holdings filed for an IPO in March. I have tried to come at an IPO valuation for the company using a mix of methodologies: EV/Revenue, EV/GTV and EV/Gross Profit.
- Taking a weighted average of peer group multiples-based valuation methodologies, I arrived at a ~$7B IPO valuation for Lalatech Holdings, including ~$1.65B of cash and cash equivalents.
- From a peer group perspective, I arrived at a fair IPO valuation close to ~$7B, using a ~5x EV/CY22 Revenue, ~0.7x EV/CY22 GTV, and a 10x EV/CY22 Gross Profit multiple.
💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
Sign Up for Free
The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network
- ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
- ✓ Personalised Alerts
- ✓ Custom Watchlists
- ✓ Company Data and News
- ✓ Events & Webinars
