Daily Brief China: Baidu, CGN Power, Leapmotor, Shenzhen International, Pinduoduo, Health And Happiness (H&H), Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting (A), West China Cement and more

• The September rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI and HSTECH indices will use today’s closing prices to cap the index constituents at 8%. This will lead to large flows.
• The largest inflows will be on Baidu (9888 HK), SenseTime Group (20 HK), China Shenhua Energy (1088 HK), Tencent (700 HK), Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK) and Anta Sports (2020 HK).
• The largest outflows will be on Meituan (3690 HK), AIA Group (1299 HK), Sunny Optical (2382 HK), SMIC (981 HK), China Pacific Insurance (2601 HK) and China Construction Bank (939).

• Nuclear power is a clean energy source that contributes to energy savings and emissions reduction in society.
• SASAC backed CGN Power (1816 HK) is China’s leading nuclear play, accounting for 55% of on-grid nuclear power generation, but just 1.2% of China’s total installed capacity of power generation.
• As one of the few listed nuclear -plays in Asia, CGN trades at undemanding multiples, together with an attractive ROE and yield.

• Leapmotor (2007699D HK) is said to be looking to raise between US$1bn-US$1.5bn by selling 290.9m shares in its IPO. At the top end, the company will be valued at HK$53bn.
• The performance of its peers over the last year leaves a lot to be desired and could lead to lower demand in the IPO.
• Leapmotor (2007699D HK) should be added to the HSCI and the Hang Seng Tech Index, though timing depends on when the stock lists on the HKEX (388 HK). 

• Leapmotor (2007699D HK), a Chinese EV manufacturer, is pre-marketing a US$1.5 billion HKEx IPO, according to press reports.
• We previously discussed the IPO in Leapmotor IPO: The Bull Case and Leapmotor IPO: The Bear Case. This note updates our view for the PHIP and recent developments.
• While the 1Q and truncated 1H numbers outline rapid growth and declining loss margin, key metrics continue to lag peers over comparable periods. We would pass on the IPO. 

• The 1H22 result of Shenzhen International (152 HK) is 4% ahead of indicated in profit warning. Key drags are toll roads and Shenzhen Airlines, but their 2H22 outlook is better.
• It will see many new logistics projects to commence operations in the next 12-18 months. Also, SZI guided that it will continue to realise underlying asset value through strategic disposals.
• We think the toughest time should be behind and expect more positive news on asset gains. The stock is very cheap at 0.41x P/B and 58% discount to appraised NAV. 

• Pinduoduo (PDD US)’s 2Q22 was rather strong with revenue of RMB 31.4bn (consensus: RMB 23.6bn) and OP of RMB 8.7bn (consensus: RMB 3.6bn).
• However, the management was quick to dismiss the pretence that piduoduo would be able to maintain these elevated growth/margin numbers throughout the rest of the year and over the medium-term.
• This creates a lot of downside to consensus 2H22 and medium-term revenue and OP estimates in a time when valuation multiples have expanded over 70% from the March 2022 bottom.

H&H International’s H1/22 results were adequate in our view, despite the challenging operating conditions in China. The company is gradually diversifying its businesses, with ANC and PNC accounting for 48% of total H1/22 revenue. Moreover, demand for PNC products is increasing, and H&H is focused on leveraging this to expand in the US and China. The Swiss brand under ANC is also growing steadily. Going forward, these would allow the company to balance any revenue decline from the intensified BNC business. H&H has a moderate financial risk profile overall, with sound liquidity.

• Tigermed had high revenue growth in 2022H1 but with a YoY decrease in net profit attributable to the owners of the Company, mainly due to poor performance of investment business.
• Tigermed’s investment business is like a “time bomb” that would detonate in the future. Its “CRO+PE/VC business model” would trap its performance in a vicious circle due to unfriendly macro.  
• We are conservative about Tigermed’s outlook and performance. Tigermed is difficult to achieve the V-shaped rebound. So we recommend investors to offload, or just do some short term trade.

• Leapmotor (LM) aims to raise around US$1.5bn in its Hong Kong IPO. LM is a smart EV company based in China, founded in 2015.
• As of end Jun 22, it had delivered a total of 104,829 cars with most of its sales coming from its mini units, T03.
• In our previous notes, we spoke about the company’s past performance and its PHIP updates. In this note, we will undertake a peer comparison.

West China Cement’s H1/22 results were in line with expectations. The company reported broad sales volume declines across all regions in China, owing to pandemic-related disruptions. Still, its revenue and gross margin were largely stable, as the better-than-expected ASP growth was able to offset increases in coal and electricity costs. Moreover, the FCF deficit was smaller than anticipated, as capex fell y-o-y. Net Debt/EBITDA weakened slightly, but remained strong at 1.8x (FYE 2021: 1.6x). Management anticipates more meaningful earnings growth and margin expansion in FY 2023, supported by the contribution from its new plant in Congo (expected to commence at end-2022).