Daily Brief China: Alibaba Group Holding , China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd, Meituan, Hong Kong Hang Seng Index, Bilibili Inc, China Jinmao Holdings, Hansoh Pharmaceutical, Xiamen International Investment and more

• China’s regulators on Friday imposed Ant Financial Services Group (6688 HK) with a fine of RMB 7.12bn. A day later, Ant Group unveiled a share buyback program worth $6bn.
• The last time media created a positive narrative around Ant Group was in January 2023 when Jack Ma relinquished control of the company.
• However, the media excitement was short-lived as Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)‘s share price quickly resumed a downward trend after rising by around 22%.

• CDF’s 1H23 preliminary results suggest that business recovery remains on track. Voices of bottom-fishing are getting louder as free fall in its share price already erased 50% market cap YTD.
• We believe the dynamics have fundamentally changed compared to three years ago when CDF was the stock market darling. Investors need be aware of the anchoring effect in making decisions.
• Moderate growth, pressured margin and contracted valuation multiple will be the new reality facing investors of the stock in our view. Wait for better entry point.

• Meituan’s food delivery has taken 20% of the Hong Kong market share in its first month’s operations.
• The authorities suggests that they will not further restrict financial apps such as AliPay of Ant Group.
• Tencent’s WeChat Pay charged a money transfer commission, but it exempted university campus the next day.

• Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
• Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
• We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces

• We cut our revenue estimations for 2H23, mainly due to increased uncertainty surrounding the launch of “Uma Musume.” 
• We also lower our estimations for live streaming due to concerns about macro factors. We slightly raise our estimations for BILI’s advertising business…
• …as we anticipate that it will benefit from gaming and e-commerce. Our rev./non-GAAP net income are 1.0% and (6.4%) vs cons in 2Q23. Cut TP to $12.3, maintaining “Sell” rating.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• China Jinmao Holdings
• Sunny Optical Technology Group
• Tata Motors ADR
• Vedanta Resources
• Yanlord Land

• VBP would continue to have an impact on Hansoh’s generic drug business in 2023.Such negative impact would gradually fade from 2024 as big varieties have all been included in VBP.
• The core difference between Hansoh and Hengrui is that someone similar to Zhang Lianshan’s role arrived late, resulting in a slower start and weaker overall framework for innovation drug business.
• Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692 HK) is still in the process of business transformation. Before the harvest time of innovative drug pipeline comes, Hansoh’s valuation growth would still be a long-term story.

• Xiamen International Investment (1567256D HK) is looking to raise up to US$1.3bn in its upcoming HK IPO. The deal will be run by CICC, Citic Securities, Huatai and Industrial Securities.
• Xiamen International Investment (XII) is an integrated financial services group based in China’s Greater Bay Area. 
• The Group has two commercial banks headquartered in Hong Kong and Macau, respectively and operates through its two banks Chiyu Banking Corporation (CYB) and Luso International Banking (LIB).

• The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) has been in a downtrend since January 2018. Long-term direction unclear, but the WEEKLY period is mildly OVERSOLD, it may bounce soon.
• The case for a LONG trade is valid if the market does not fall > 2 consecutive weeks from June 30th’s Close (18916.43). High-probability LONG trades from 17786.
• SHORT trade strategy possible but requires patience: if the market rises, it could rise for 2-3 weeks, based on MRM’s pattern readings. Better wait and short that scenario, not earlier.