Daily Brief China: Alibaba (ADR), Keep Inc, China Feihe, Shougang Fushan Resources, Luckin Coffee, China Dongxiang, Xiamen Yan Palace Bioengineering, ZTO Express, 3D Medicines, Vedanta Resources and more

• Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US) aims to complete the IPO of Cainiao Smart Logistics (1437124D HK) in the next 12 to 18 months. Alibaba holds a 67% stake in Cainiao. 
• Cainiao’s revenue growth, while on a declining trend, remains in double digits. Encouragingly. narrowing losses set a path to profitability.
• On 30 March, Bloomberg reported that Cainiao is currently valued at more than US$20 billion. Our valuation analysis suggests that such a valuation is justifiable.

• Keep Inc (KEEP HK) is looking to raise around US$100m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
• Keep is an online fitness platform, offering online fitness content, smart fitness devices and fitness products.
• In this note, we discuss the updates since our last note.

• The data in this insight is collated from the “shareholding disclosure” link on the HKEx website.
• Often there is a corresponding HKEx announcement on the increase – or decrease – in the shareholding by directors. Or pledging. However, such disclosures are by no means an absolute.
• The key stock mentioned in this regular insight is China Feihe (6186 HK)

• Funde Sino Life Insurance, a significant shareholder of Shougang Fushan Resources (639 HK), has sold down its stake in the company by 3.31% to  27.96% as per recent filings.
• Along with coking coal prices remaining weak, this creates a massive overhang clubbed with uncertainty on the share price in the short term. 
• It also creates an opportunity as the stock has almost 70% of its market capitalization in cash, a low-cost advantage, and a dividend yield of at least 12% for FY23e.

• We expect Luckin to report 2Q23 rev. at 75.0% YoY and 30.1% QoQ to RMB5,771mn. We expect GPM, non-GAAP OPM, non-GAAP NPM to decline 3.7ppt, 3.6ppt, and 3.9ppt QoQ .
• Luckin is putting scale ahead of profitability, surpassing 10k total stores in 2Q23 and heading to 12k total stores in 2023, while maintaining a decent margin. 
• We maintain the stock as BUY rating and cut TP by US$3.5 to US$37.5 (36x PE in 2024) to factor in the margin dilution effect from sales promotion.

• China Dongxiang (3818 HK) posted good FY22/23 result, supporting by sharp recovery in its investment portfolio contribution. Its apparel business also witnessed narrowing losses.
• It trades on 0.2x P/B, with most of book value being cash and investment portfolio. It is true that it deserves a discount but this is just too deep.
• Fading pandemic impact should be positive to CNDX’s apparel business – it has already witnessed a 5.6pp increase in offline sales. More brand promotion should be a positive driver.

• Xiamen Yan Palace Bioengineering (1951686D CH) is looking to raise around US$200m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by CICC and GF Securities.
• Xiamen Yan Palace Bioengineering focuses on the development, production and marketing of high-quality modern edible bird’s nest (EBN) products.
• According to Frost & Sullivan (F&S), the firm is the largest EBN product company globally in terms of retail value between 2020-2022, with a market share of 4.1%.

• In May, average pricing fell again Y/Y, and volume growth moderated somewhat vs April
• We look forward to learning more about J&T Global Express IPO and its path to profits
• Check out the weird China-US postage fraud case and YTD share performance

• The pricing of core product Envafolimab doesn’t have an advantage over competitors. Its market opportunities and profit margins are very limited if seen from both production side and sales side.
• 3DMed clearly faces financial pressure, and may not smoothly promote other pipelines. Under current market environment, it’s almost impossible to achieve substantial refinancing. The survival of 3DMed cannot be guaranteed.
• The fundamentals of 3DMed are not strong enough to justify high valuation. Current share price is clearly overvalued.Eventually the market will return to rationality. We recommend investors offload in time.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• ENN Natural Gas
• Vedanta Resources