In today’s briefing:
- Nationwide/Virgin Money (VUK AU): At The Pointy End Of The Offer
- Latin Resources (LRS AU): Pilbara Minerals’ All-Scrip Offer
- Selected European HoldCos and DLC: August’24 Report
- Opthea (OPT AU): Getting Closer to Commercialization of First Drug; Fund Raising Adds to Confidence
- Morning Views Asia: Meituan, New World Development, Nickel Industries
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Nationwide/Virgin Money (VUK AU): At The Pointy End Of The Offer
- Back on the 21st March, Virgin Money UK (VUK AU/VMUK LN), UK’s sixth largest retail bank, entered into a Scheme with Nationwide Building Society, at 220 pence/share, in cash.
- The consideration is a solid 38% premium to undisturbed. And shareholders backed terms at the 22nd May Court Meeting. Plus UK’s CMA signed off on the 19th July.
- What now? FCA/PRA approvals are the key remaining conditions. These regulatory approvals are imminent.
Latin Resources (LRS AU): Pilbara Minerals’ All-Scrip Offer
- On 15 August, Latin Resources (LRS AU) disclosed a binding offer from Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU) at 0.07 PLS share per LRS share, a 66.3% premium to the undisturbed price.
- The key condition is LRS shareholder approval. No disinterested shareholder holds the 25% blocking stake, and low retail ownership lowers the headcount test risk.
- The Salinas definitive feasibility study, expected in September, provides option value. A strong result could draw a competing offer or force PLS into sweetening terms.
Selected European HoldCos and DLC: August’24 Report
- Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos did not follow a clear trend during August. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 46.2% (vs. 45.3% as of August 9); GBL, 41.1% (vs. 42.2%);
- Heineken Holding, 16.5% (vs. 16%); Industrivärden C, 1.7% (vs. 2.2%); Investor B, 1.9% (vs.7.5%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 35.7% (vs. 34.6%). Rio DLC spread tightened to 19.8% (vs. 22.1%).
- What seems interesting (unchanged views): Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).
Opthea (OPT AU): Getting Closer to Commercialization of First Drug; Fund Raising Adds to Confidence
- Opthea Ltd (OPT AU) completed enrollment in two Phase 3 trials for sozinibercept in wet AMD. Topline data from these trials are expected by mid-2025.
- During FY24, Opthea raised $295M to extend runway through topline data readouts of Phase 3 clinical trials. Further, in July, Opthea raised $38M through retail entitlement offer.
- Although Opthea is well-funded through mid-2025, any fund requirement beyond that period will be easier to meet amid lower interest rate scenario.
Morning Views Asia: Meituan, New World Development, Nickel Industries
Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.